We drew this Bitcoin descending channel chart as early as August, when Bitcoin was still near point C. We predicted that the next high point D after the decline should first reach 62,000, and then the key position would be 65,000 US dollars, that is, when it hits 65,000 again, it will be a key position.
This means that the downward channel will be broken and a new trend is expected to start. The current market is around $64,000, less than $800 away from $65,000.
We can see that bottom 3 is higher than bottom 2, and the 2-day MACD is also a golden cross. Although this is similar to an upward trend.
If point D is blocked at 65,000, it will be a signal of a pullback, and the retracement will be larger.
Corresponding to the 53,000-54,000 gap of CME, Bitcoin will hit this position again, which means there will be another drop of $10,000. Although the Fed’s interest rate cut is regarded as an external positive, it is another matter from the macro to the micro level.
Looking back at the market conditions in the past few months, it just reached a local high point when the market came to an abrupt halt and then changed direction, catching everyone by surprise.
When we review this period of market, we find that it is very regular. April was a month of decline, May was an increase before a decrease, and June was a month of decline. July was also an increase before a decrease, and August was also an increase before a decrease. Then September was also an increase before an increase. It is very interesting to see whether the decline will also eat up the increase in the next market.
We have already talked about this market situation in the live broadcast of the student class, and we have already rehearsed the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut.
The market is fluctuating. It is not completely untraceable, nor is it mysterious. It depends on your knowledge and understanding of the market.
Judging from the daily indicators, the market has already peaked. In the yellow box I marked at the bottom, the 2-day line is peaking, which should be in the next two days. Judging from the past market conditions, the decline after the 2-day line peaked is still relatively large.
So in the earlier article, when Bitcoin was still at 55,000, we proposed that it was a wait-and-see period after 62,000, and that we needed to start preparing to reduce positions. The market will reach a stage high.
Historical article: Bitcoin’s current decline is building momentum for its rise in September!
As for today's short-term level, the 2-hour MACD double top dead cross, that is, the short-term decline has begun. The short-term is a small period of time. If the decline reaches around 61,000, everyone should be careful.
Today we are interpreting the market from a technical perspective, and this is a review of the market. That is, the rise and fall of the market was predicted as early as August. The market is as expected.
What I want to say is that you can't always take the market out of context or just follow what others say. Or you can't say anything without knowing what you are saying.
If you can always predict the market in advance, you won’t always be like a headless fly!
Buying low and selling high, and making relatively predictable management, is a supplement to cyclical and long-term selections.
Well, let’s stop here for today. Tonight is the last working day of the week for US institutions, and tomorrow is the weekend again. SEE YOU!
(The crypto industry is highly volatile, this is just a sharing of opinions, not investment advice)
