If history is any indicator of what Bitcoin (BTC) could do in the coming months, we are on the verge of one of the most explosive moves in its history. Previous halvings have been key signals preceding major bullish rallies, and all signs point to 2024-2025 potentially repeating that pattern. Based on the historical picture of Bitcoinâs behavior after halvings, the cryptocurrency could be setting the stage for a new bull run.
What is Halving and why does it matter?
The Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs roughly every four years, where the reward for mining Bitcoin blocks is cut in half. Not only does this reduce the number of new Bitcoins entering circulation, but it also often triggers significant price increases due to the decreased supply of new coins.
In past events, the price of Bitcoin has started to rise exponentially within 160-170 days after the halving. In 2016-2017, the significant increase came after 168 days; in 2020-2021, it happened after 161 days. Now, with the next cycle starting after the 2024 halving, many analysts believe that history is about to repeat itself. According to calculations, we could see this movement within the next 153 days.
Short and long term projections
Bitcoin has proven time and time again its ability to rally after key events like halvings. In each of the previous cycles, we have seen the price of Bitcoin climb to new all-time highs following the post-halving accumulation period. In fact, in the 2020-2021 cycle, Bitcoin reached its all-time high above $60,000. If macroeconomic conditions are favorable and institutional adoption continues to grow, we could be looking at much higher prices on the horizon.
What could this mean for pricing?
Short-term (next few weeks): Based on historical comparison, Bitcoin could enter a phase of sustained growth in the next two weeks. Several analysts expect BTC to surpass $50,000 before the end of the year if this rally gains momentum.
Medium term (2024-2025): Optimistic projections place Bitcoin reaching $85,000-$100,000. If market conditions are similar to those of previous cycles, this range is possible by the end of 2025, when the full effect of the halving is felt in supply.
Why is the market more optimistic?
Supply reduction: The halving not only reduces the supply of BTC, but also creates a psychological effect on investors. The scarcity of new coins encourages purchasing and accumulation by institutions and large players.
Institutional adoption: Large corporations and institutional funds have begun accumulating Bitcoin as a store of value, reinforcing its âdigital goldâ narrative. As more institutions enter the market, demand could outstrip available supply, driving up prices.
Macroeconomic factors: Amid global inflation and economic uncertainty, Bitcoin continues to position itself as a safe haven option for many investors. The growing adoption of cryptocurrencies in countries with unstable economies also supports the demand for BTC.
Could Bitcoin Surpass Its All-Time Highs?
If we follow the previous cycles, the answer is a resounding yes. In the 2016-2017 cycle, Bitcoin rose from around $600 to over $19,000. In 2020-2021, we saw a surge from $10,000 to $60,000. Based on this pattern, some analysts do not rule out the possibility of Bitcoin reaching the $100,000 mark or higher in the next cycle.
Are we about to see Bitcoin break all of its previous records? Time will tell, but the signs are there.
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