Golden Finance reported that according to market news, UBS strategists believe that there is a clear risk that US interest rates will eventually fall more than the market currently prices, which may inflate the stock market bubble. The UBS team led by Andrew Garthwaite said that since 1981, the Fed's 50 basis point policy easing cycle has been accompanied by a recession, but this time they believe it is a sign of the Fed's aggressiveness rather than a recession. Garthwaite pointed out that market pricing reflects that interest rates will bottom out at around 2.8%, which is the neutral interest rate level that the Fed once hinted at, "so there is a clear risk that interest rates will eventually fall more than expected." The UBS team believes that the steepening of the yield curve dominated by short-term bonds is beneficial to defensive stocks and consumer goods industries, but not luxury goods, and small-cap stocks are expected to outperform because their floating rate debt is three times that of large-cap stocks.