First of all, all preliminary analysis of market conditions is actually speculation.
We need to pay attention to the impact of Japan's interest rate meeting tomorrow on the market. Because the interest rate was just raised on August 3, the probability of raising the interest rate one month apart is not high, or in other words, very low. Not raising the interest rate is also a positive factor. The rise of Japanese stocks may drive the daily line to continue to rise tomorrow. However, this can also be understood as the last possible positive factor that can be seen in the short term, or an uncertain factor that can significantly affect the market trend.
Going back further, until before the election, the market was in a state of "lack of hype news", or in layman's terms, "nothing more can be hyped", and then the price will return to normal. Return, correction, it depends on how you understand this meaning.
To continue to push prices upward, either there will be a positive news with the same volume as a 50% interest rate cut, or off-market funds will enter the market. We cannot predict or guess the former. The latter will take at least one month.
I am not bearish. Why should I be bearish? I am the leader of the long army. I am still holding the long orders and spot stocks at the previous low. I am just pointing out the risk. Whether it is a risk or an opportunity depends on how you understand it.
Let’s look at the daily line first
You can pay attention to the speed of decline after the previous rapid rise without consolidation and then the reversal. Then look at our current position. Friends, where do you think the top will appear?
Then the weekly line
I won't say more, my friend, just feel where we should peak.
Finally, look at the next month line
Have you ever seen a train running upright, my friend?
Finally, let’s take a look at the liquidation situation
If it reaches 56363, 90% of the long positions can be liquidated, and if it reaches 530, 95% of the long positions can be liquidated.
When the price rises to 65112, 95% of the short positions are liquidated. This means that if the price continues to rise, there is no way to use the contract to increase the price. If the spot price rises, who will buy it?
According to the normal trend, a reversal will occur after the weaker side is cleared.
I won’t talk about the top price. After seeing this, you should be able to guess where the extreme position will be. Of course, the market will always go wherever it goes.
What the cryptocurrency world lacks the least is unexpected surprises, so the top and bottom can only be guessed.
