Historically, almost every round of interest rate cuts has been accompanied by a recession in the U.S. economy.
It can be seen that from the oil crisis in the 1970s, the savings and loan crisis in the 1980s, the Internet bubble at the turn of the century, to the global financial crisis in 2008 and the global COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, every major interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has highly overlapped with the shadow range of recession.
That's why rate cuts are sometimes seen as a "signal of economic weakness" - the Fed typically cuts rates when the economy is in trouble, trying to stimulate economic recovery through looser monetary policy.
Although Powell+ repeatedly emphasized that the US economy is still very good, the actual actions speak for themselves.
If the U.S. economy is really very good, this is just a simple preventive rate cut, then the rate will only be cut by 25 basis points, or even not cut at all, and continue to raise interest rates. This is true confidence in the economy.
The current interest rate cut is beyond expectations, which shows that the economy has encountered problems, but the extent of the recession is still uncertain.
The Fed started cutting interest rates relatively late in this round. Before the rate cuts, there were strong signs of weakening economy and job market. After this round of rate cuts, the economy and job market may continue to decline for a period of time. If there is no serious economic or financial market shock in the future, this round of rate cuts is likely to achieve a "soft landing".
From 1982 to 2019, the United States has cut interest rates seven times.
Among them, before the first rate cut, US bonds and gold usually benefit; after the first rate cut, the risk of price fluctuations of most assets increases.
1. The trend of U.S. Treasury bond interest rates is downward, but in the case of a "soft landing", it may rebound within 1-2 months after the first interest rate cut.
2. There is no absolute correlation between the trend of the US dollar index and interest rate cuts and whether there is a "soft landing".
3. The rise of U.S. stocks may "stall" before and after the first interest rate cut, but they usually resume rising 2-3 months after the rate cut.
4. There is a high probability that gold will rise before a rate cut, but its trend after the rate cut is unclear.
5. There is a high probability that crude oil will fall after the interest rate cut, but it is not absolute. It depends on demand.
At present, the United States has started a new round of interest rate cuts, breaking the ceiling of China's monetary policy and giving us greater room for interest rate cuts.
In the past few years, there has been a rare inversion in interest rates between China and the United States, with China's 10-year treasury bond yield about 200 basis points lower than that of the United States.
In order to reduce capital outflow from China, China has cut interest rates in small steps with limited magnitude. After the U.S. dollar started its interest rate cut cycle, China's room for interest rate cuts will increase in the next few years, and the era of low interest rates has arrived.
The Fed's interest rate cut cycle is good for China. It has increased China's monetary policy space and is good for the property market, stock market and economy.
But whether the A-share market has bottomed out depends on the property market; whether the property market has bottomed out depends on the economy; and whether the economy has bottomed out depends on whether the monetary and fiscal policies are strong enough.
Historically, the performance of these assets after each rate cut has been different, depending on what stage the U.S. economy was in at the time. If it was in a period of vitality after a technological revolution, a rate cut would allow the stock market to continue to rise and the dollar to appreciate; conversely, a rate cut confirmed the poor economy, and within six months or a year after the first rate cut, the stock market fell, safe-haven funds flowed into the bond market, and the dollar depreciated.

At present, the market has a large divergence of views on the trend in the next six months to one year. The US economy seems to be still in the excitement period after a new round of technological revolution (such as artificial intelligence), with no obvious signs of recession.

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