From Powell's speech alone, he has always emphasized the relationship between the labor market and inflation, believing that a balance has been reached at present, and that the Fed is currently at the forefront of the economy (employment). He also claimed that the 50 basis point rate cut is still defensive in nature and that no problems are expected in the US economy.
Although the market has expected the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, Powell's explanation does not seem to be very popular. Interestingly, after the 50 basis point rate cut, the US dollar index rose and returned to above 101, and the long-term US Treasury bond interest rate also rose. Therefore, I personally think that the current market is still in the game stage, and there is no clear answer.
Is the US economy entering a recession? Did the Fed see information that investors did not notice and choose to "get ahead" to prevent problems? These are all issues that investors are worried about. However, it is clear that Powell's answer today did not give a satisfactory answer to the market. Therefore, the battle between long and short may not be today, but tomorrow, and we will observe it after the market calms down.
Today, the data on #BTC on the chain reflects more the situation before the rate cut, and the data after the rate cut will not be available until tomorrow. There is no obvious risk aversion in these data, which means that early investors did not choose to leave the market due to concerns about rate cuts. At present, the investors with the highest turnover rate are still those who bought the bottom in the past two days. Recently, there has been a large number of reductions in the holdings of profitable investors, while there has been no obvious action by earlier investors.
