The second televised debate among candidates for the 2024 U.S. presidential election has ended, and the results of the debate were somewhat disappointing to Republican presidential candidate Trump.
Two months ago, Trump, who had just survived a shooting, shouted to the crowd with blood on his face, and was the most popular candidate in the election. Previously, he not only overshadowed Democratic candidate Biden in the first televised debate of this year's presidential election, but also made the latter finally decide to withdraw from the election and pass the baton to the current US Vice President Harris. In the second televised debate between US presidential candidates, Harris, who was originally not taken seriously by Trump, gave Trump a warning.
On the evening of September 10th, local time, at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, one of the key swing states in the US presidential election, the two "protagonists" of the 47th US presidential election appeared. Republican candidate Trump and Democratic candidate Harris launched their first and perhaps only head-on confrontation on the debate stage.
In late July, US President Biden hastily announced his withdrawal from the next presidential election, and was eventually replaced by current US Vice President Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate. With only about 100 days left before the election results were announced, the Democratic Party temporarily changed its leader, and Harris, who was appointed in a critical situation, did not initially attract enough attention from her competitors.
At the debate, Trump was still wearing a navy blue suit and his signature red tie, his expression showing his usual confidence and rebelliousness. Harris, on the other hand, was wearing a dark suit, moving skillfully, with his signature "diplomatic smile" on his face. The debate was hosted by two senior news anchors from the American Broadcasting Corporation (ABC).
Before the debate began, Harris took the initiative to walk to Trump's podium and shook hands with him. Some media reported that this handshake was a "first" since the 2016 US presidential election.
The first televised debate between Trump (left) and Harris on September 10.
Overtime
After the debate began, the scene was full of gunpowder. With only eight weeks left before Election Day, Harris and Trump tried their best to present their respective propositions to voters, and engaged in fierce confrontations on hot issues such as inflation, abortion, immigration, gun control, health care and foreign policy.
Most US media reports believe that Harris put Trump on the defensive in the debate. However, Harris and Trump's campaign team both issued statements that night claiming victory in the debate. Trump said that this debate was his "best" performance. He was "one against three" because the two moderators of the debate favored Harris.
Shortly after the debate, the debate was broadcast simultaneously on 17 network platforms including NBC and MSNBC, and attracted about 67.1 million viewers, according to data from media analysis company Nielsen. This rating is 30% higher than the 51.3 million viewers of the Trump-Biden debate in June.
The national poll results released by CNN and two other organizations showed that about 57% of viewers thought Harris performed better, and only 34% thought Trump performed better. The reaction of the betting market is also more inclined to Harris.
In terms of the public favorability of both sides, the results of an Ipsos survey of 3,276 adults also showed that Harris did increase her personal appeal: 37% said the debate made them like her more, while Trump did not gain similar benefits; the number of people who believed that the debate made more people have a lower favorability towards Trump was twice the number of "opposition parties".
It is worth noting that before this televised debate, multiple polls pointed out that the support levels of both sides were extremely close.
Harris is not only leading in the polls, but has also successfully gained the support of "top stars". Just half an hour after the TV debate ended, Taylor Swift, a well-known American singer, posted on social networking sites, publicly expressing her support for Harris to her huge fan base of 283 million. She praised Harris and her team for their efforts in fighting for women's rights and the rights of minority groups. In conjunction with the post, Taylor Swift also attached a photo of herself holding a cat to satirize the inappropriate remarks made by Trump's running mate Vance, who once called women without children "childless cat ladies."
On September 12, Harris attended a campaign rally in North Carolina, USA. Photo/Visual China
This statement received nearly 10 million likes in just one day, and according to the National Public Radio Network (NPR), as one of the most influential public figures in the United States, Taylor Swift's support will translate into a large number of votes. NPR analyzed that as of 2 p.m. on September 11, more than 330,000 people turned from Swift's social network account to the presidential election voting website Vote.gov. The Washington Post also stated that according to an analysis of Google Trends, voter registration searches surged after Taylor Swift posted.
Taylor Swift's clear support kicked off the "overtime" of this TV debate. The first person to get restless was Elon Musk, a Trump supporter, CEO of SpaceX and a strong supporter of the Republican Party. Musk, who has more than 150 million followers on his personal social media platform, not only made a poor joke about Taylor Swift's photo on the SpaceX website, but also publicly stated that the success of the Mars mission depends on the results of the US presidential election in November. This "tech madman" who dreams of conquering Mars said that he hopes he can successfully send humans to Mars in four years, and the partner of this dream must be Trump.
“Trump supports a government efficiency commission to allow great things to be done, but Harris does not,” Musk declared, adding, “If Harris wins, we will never get to Mars.”
Trump was very dissatisfied with Taylor Swift's stance after the debate. On September 15, he posted a message on the social network "Truth": "I hate Taylor Swift!" In an earlier interview with the media, Trump expressed his attitude towards Taylor Swift: "I am not a fan of her. I think she is a very liberal person, so she will always stand on the side of the Democratic Party."
Judging from the reactions from all sides, Harris became the winner of this debate. After the game, Harris' campaign team confidently announced that they looked forward to a "debate rematch" with Trump in October. However, Trump, who was passive throughout the whole process, obviously had no intention of fighting. The day after the debate between the two ended, Trump announced that "there will be no third debate." Trump told the media that he was not interested in a "rematch" with Harris because he "won the debate according to every poll - I think every poll." In response, Harris' team issued a sarcastic response, and Chairman David Plouffe wrote on Twitter: "We finally discovered his (Trump's) spiritual animal attribute: coward."
The trend of "swing states"
Since succeeding Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate, Harris has largely described her personal story as a person who grew up in a middle-class family with immigrant parents. She and her campaign team hope to attract more middle-class and swing voters with their policies and propositions. "Harris' strategy behind this is to focus on promoting her plan to revitalize the middle class and compare her upbringing with Trump's," said American political reporter Alan Doherty.
Obviously, Harris's strategy has had some effect in the campaign. According to the British newspaper The Guardian, Harris's performance after joining the campaign is likely to bring about "dramatic" changes in North Carolina, a Republican stronghold. Poll data shows that as the election date approaches, Democratic voters in North Carolina are rejuvenated, part of which is about 20% of African-American voters in North Carolina. In 2008, it was the increase in the voter turnout of African-American voters in the state that helped Obama win the election in the state.
On September 15, a shooting occurred near the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida, USA. FBI staff are investigating at the scene. Photo/Visual China
Harris has visited North Carolina 17 times since taking office as vice president. A week ago, she held a rally in the state with a total of 25,000 people in attendance. This is also her ninth visit to the state this year. "From our perspective, we feel that this race is a close one, but we still have the advantage." Matt Mercer, a Republican in North Carolina, commented on Harris's aggressive approach.
At present, judging from the distribution of campaign activities of the Republican and Democratic parties, the Trump campaign team has given up the efforts to focus on campaigning in the traditional "blue states" of New Hampshire, Minnesota and Virginia. The focus of the competition between the Republicans and the Democrats is on seven states with more variables, namely Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and now North Carolina.
At the same time, different voices within the Republican Party are also being amplified. On September 15, 17 Republicans who had worked in the Reagan administration announced their support for Harris. In the statement, they quoted Reagan's "Moment of Choice" speech, saying that they believed that if Reagan were still alive today, they believed that Reagan would support Harris's presidential campaign.
Although there are different voices within the Republican Party, some still question whether Harris' policies can bring about significant changes. John Bolton, the U.S. national security adviser during the Trump administration, believes that Harris will not achieve much if elected president, and that foreign policy will continue the policies of President Biden, "for another four years."
Kim Darroch, former British ambassador to Washington, believes that unless Harris can fix key mistakes in the campaign, Trump will still be the "more likely winner" of the US presidential election on November 5. Darroch said that although Harris clearly defeated Trump in the first televised debate between the two, the actual results of governing are more important. In 2020, Biden won voters in key swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. However, whether Harris can provide "some clearly worded, specific, targeted policies to bring jobs and hope to the hard-hit communities in these states" will truly determine the direction of these "swing states" in 2024.
Adding variables
The public opinion and influence stirred up by the presidential candidates' TV debate were still fermenting. A few days later, news came from Florida that Trump had once again encountered a "suspected assassination attempt."
On the afternoon of September 15th, Eastern Time, gunshots were heard at the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida. It is reported that Trump was playing golf at the time. A Secret Service agent on duty at the golf club found a rifle barrel with a scope sticking out of the fence not far away, and he immediately "exchanged fire" with the suspect.
The Secret Service official said the gunman was about 300 to 500 yards away from Trump. Because security teams usually move ahead to secure the area, Trump was one or two holes away from the target location. The official said the agent noticed the barrel of the gun extended while doing a preliminary check.
The suspect was then arrested on suspicion of attempting to assassinate Trump. According to the FBI, the man, 58, is a self-employed affordable housing builder in Hawaii. He firmly supports Ukraine, often comments on politics and current affairs on social media, is very dissatisfied with Trump's performance as president, and does not want him to become president of the United States again.
After the incident, Trump immediately assured his supporters that he was "safe and healthy." "There were gunshots near me, but before the rumors start to get out of control, I want you to hear first: I am safe and everything is fine!" Trump said in a fundraising email sent after the "assassination attempt": "Nothing can slow me down. I will never surrender!"
After the incident, the White House also sent condolences, saying that President Biden and Vice President Harris were "relieved" to learn that Trump was safe and had received relevant briefings.
With more than a month left before the results of the 47th U.S. presidential election are announced, the final "decisive battle" between Republican candidate Trump, who suffered two "failed assassination attempts", and Democratic candidate Harris, who entered the race temporarily but unexpectedly gained more support, is still full of variables.
