The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to reap global wealth. The dollar's hegemony has caused public outrage. Trillions of dollars may flow back, and China will be the biggest winner? Trump has a bad feeling.
On September 19, the news of the Fed's interest rate cut triggered heated discussions in the global capital market. Although the US side used "slowing inflation, stimulating the economy and increasing employment" as a cover-up, it is a common practice for the United States to use the "dollar tide" to reap global wealth. Countries around the world are no longer surprised, and Asian countries are the most damaged. Take 2024 as an example. The currencies of South Korea and Brazil will depreciate sharply against the US dollar by about 6%, the Thai baht will depreciate by as much as 7.5% against the US dollar, the Japanese yen will depreciate by about 7% against the US dollar, and the average depreciation rate of currencies in other emerging markets against the US dollar will be 1.5%. The depreciation of currencies in other countries will inevitably lead to capital outflows, and at the same time provide convenience for US capital to reap high-quality assets in its own country. In this cycle, the Fed's interest rate cut is an important link, which determines the profit and loss rate of US capital. For decades, this routine of the United States has been tried and tested, and even directly affected the social stability of other countries.
Unlike in the past, the United States’ biggest target is not Japan, South Korea, or Southeast Asian countries, but Europe and China. In order to attract capital backflows, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict finally broke out on the eve of the U.S. interest rate hike, causing Europe’s security environment to take a sharp turn for the worse and triggering some capital flight. Around China, Pelosi’s move to Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen’s move to the U.S., and the Philippines’ provocative actions in the South China Sea all have the shadow of the United States behind them. From the perspective of financial warfare, the ultimate goal of the United States is to mess up Asia and reap China. But “unfortunately”, in the era of the epidemic, the economies of European countries have flattened, and the United States cannot get much benefit. Due to China’s own prevention and control measures and strategic determination, the financial market has only fluctuated slightly. The United States has continued to raise interest rates for more than two years. In addition to blowing up small countries such as Sri Lanka, the unlucky ones are U.S. allies such as Britain and Japan.
The Fed has no choice but to enter a rate cut cycle. Continuing to support the economy will only bring greater interest costs, especially since Western economies such as the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Canada have already entered a rate cut cycle in August and September this year. This financial war has become a "one-man show" for the United States. Coupled with the severe situation of employment rate and economic index, the Fed's early "surrender" is inevitable. According to relevant analysis, the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points this year, and the rate cut cycle may last until 2026, which is a major benefit for China. Earlier, British economist Stephen predicted that after the Fed cut interest rates, trillions of dollars may flow back to China, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will appreciate by about 10%.
If the prediction comes true, China's investment, employment and imports will continue to rise, and assets such as the stock market and the real estate market are expected to see the dawn, and the growth momentum of China's economy will be stronger. In this regard, the Republican presidential candidate Trump has a bad feeling, saying that there are two possibilities for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sharply. Either the Democratic Party is playing politics, or the US economy is already very bad. From the data, the US unemployment rate remains high, and the economic growth rate is expected to fall below the 2% red line, while the Biden administration's "infrastructure strategy" and "technology support policy" are difficult to implement. With the rise and fall of one, the game between China and the United States may change its offense and defense. #token2049 #加密市场反弹 #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ $BTC $ETH $BNB #BTC #ETH
