#美联储宣布降息50个基点 The Fed's interest rate cuts are often seen as one of the factors driving the stock market up, but the timing of entering a bull market may be affected by a variety of factors. The following are some key interest rate cut cycles and their impact on the US stock bull market, which can be roughly used as a reference for changes in the cryptocurrency market. Judging from the past few interest rate cuts, the time interval between the start of the interest rate cut and the start of the bull market is getting shorter and shorter:
1. After the Internet Bubble in 2000-2002
- Interest rate cuts started: January 2001
- Bull market started: March 2003
- Duration of the bull market: After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates sharply in 2001, the market adjusted for about two years, and the S&P 500 index entered a bull market around March 2003.
2. After the financial crisis of 2007-2009
- Interest rate cuts started: September 2007
- Bull market started: March 2009
- Duration of the bull market: The Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates in 2007, but the market experienced the 2008 financial crisis. The S&P 500 bottomed out in March 2009 and entered a long bull market that lasted about 1.5 years.
3. 2019 interest rate cut cycle
- Interest rate cut starts in July 2019
- Bull market start time: October 2019 (continuation of bull market)
- Bull market start duration: After the interest rate cut in 2019, the US stock market continued to rise in just a few months and entered the longest bull market in history. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, the market suffered a sharp correction in March 2020, but then rebounded quickly.
4. Interest rate cuts after the 2020 epidemic
- Interest rate cut starts in March 2020 (emergency rate cut to zero)
- Bull market start time: April 2020
- Duration of the bull market: After the market crash in March 2020, the Federal Reserve adopted an extreme monetary easing policy, and the U.S. stock market rebounded rapidly in just one month and entered a strong bull market.
Summarize
Historically, the time it takes for the U.S. stock market to enter a bull market after the Fed cuts interest rates varies, usually taking several months to several years, depending on the economic environment, market sentiment and other external factors. In recent years, loose monetary policy has generally pushed the stock market into a bull market faster.
