Today, Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater, talked about his views on investing in China in an interview with Bloomberg TV. It is worth everyone's serious attention!
GPT4 summary, the key points are as followsđ:
1. Residents' wealth has shrunk. In the past four years, China's real estate market and stock market have declined, causing the vast majority of residents' wealth to evaporate, especially the middle class. Residents have begun to turn to holding cash. In the context of deflation, cash is a relatively safe asset.
2. Land finance. The decline in the real estate market has led to increased debt pressure on the Chinese government. It is difficult to maintain it through traditional land finance means. Local governments are facing a shortage of funds. It is difficult to get out of the debt quagmire without structural reforms.
3. Property ownership. Personal property ownership is sacred and inviolable, but this has been questioned in China. This is related to investor confidence. Whether personal private property can be effectively protected in the long term is an important challenge in economic structural adjustment. This is more common in the cases we have seen recently, such as cross-regional law enforcement and a sharp increase in non-tax revenue.
4. Getting rich is glorious. In the era of Deng Xiaoping, "It doesn't matter whether the cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice, it is a good cat." "The rich will lead the poor." Such ideas are disappearing. People's concerns about the deterioration of the entrepreneurial environment and policy uncertainty have become stumbling blocks for entrepreneurship. Is the concept of "getting rich is glorious" still applicable?
5. Technological innovation is guided by the government. In the video, Dalio affirmed China's advantages in technological innovation, but it is not open. Most of them are mainly guided by the government. In this case, whether the soil for corporate innovation and vitality is sustainable is questioned.
6. Whether to continue investing in China. Dalio believes that any economy has cycles, and there are highs and lows. He will continue to invest in China, but he is reducing the proportion of investment, and it is not appropriate to let China become the dominant part of the investment portfolio. He also believes that China is currently facing more serious economic challenges than Japan in the 1990s, and expects China to come out of the structural reform of the economy.
