• Cardano’s large transaction volume drops, signaling reduced whale activity.

  • MVRV ratio declines to -61.25%, indicating increased unrealized losses for holders.

  • Technical analysis suggests potential drop to $0.30, with $0.40 as bullish target if $0.35 breached.

Cardano (ADA) finds itself at a critical juncture as recent on-chain data suggests a shift in market dynamics, potentially dampening its short-term outlook. Just two days ago, the cryptocurrency appeared poised for a rally towards $0.40, but this bullish scenario has dimmed following a noticeable retreat by crypto whales.

The large transaction volume, a key metric for gauging institutional and whale activity, has experienced a  decline. From a peak of 19.50 billion ADA on September 16, the volume has dropped to 18.44 billion, indicating a pullback in major holder engagement.

This metric, which tracks transactions valued at $100,000 or more, serves as a barometer for whale sentiment and can significantly influence price action.

Source:  IntoTheBlock Cardano price follows suit alongside whale interest

As whale interest wanes, ADA’s price has followed suit, declining from $0.36 over the weekend to $0.33 at press time. This price decrease has had a ripple effect on Cardano’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a crucial indicator of unrealized profits or losses among holders.

The one-day MVRV ratio has plummeted from -39% on Monday to -61.25% currently, suggesting that a growing number of ADA holders are facing increased difficulty in realizing gains.

Technical analysis further corroborates the bearish narrative surrounding ADA. The Awesome Oscillator (AO), a momentum indicator comparing recent price movements to historical ones, has shifted into negative territory after being positive on September 15. This transition signals a potential loss of bullish momentum and could foreshadow further downside.

Additionally, ADA’s failure to breach the $0.34 level reinforces the prevailing bearish bias. Given these technical and on-chain indicators, the likelihood of a substantial upward move appears limited in the short term.

Instead, market participants should be prepared for a potential decline towards the $0.30 support level.