Bank of America said that the Fed tends to be more moderate than expected in its actions, and there will be no hawkish surprises. It also said that the Fed usually gives sufficient advance notice of tough signals to avoid exacerbating the financial environment, and seems to be more willing to surprise in the moderate direction.

Now the market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points to be 55%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to be 45%. Bank of America thinks that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates hawkishly, which will support long-term bonds and steepening of the curve. Is this statement correct? Will the Fed really prefer moderate rather than hawkish surprise actions? Are the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts accurate? Is Bank of America's view reliable?