CME data showed traders were evenly split between bets on a 50 basis point and a 25 basis point rate cut in the past few hours
As the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision approaches, the outcome appears to be more uncertain. According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), over the past few hours, traders have more evenly bet between a 50 basis point rate cut (currently with a probability of around 55%) and a 25 basis point rate cut (with a probability of 45%). Earlier on Wednesday, a 50 basis point rate cut was still seen as the more likely option, with a 2:1 probability advantage, but due to strong economic data, the more conservative 25 basis point rate cut option has gained more support. As the possibility of a significant rate cut has decreased, US Treasury yields have been rising. The yield on the 2-year US Treasury is currently reported at 3.657%, compared to 3.59% at the close on Tuesday. (Gold Ten)
