The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its latest interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday (19th). As investors' expectations for a 2-point rate cut by the Fed rose again, U.S. stocks rose across the board on September 13. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes closed higher for five consecutive days, reversing the previous week's weak performance and recording the largest weekly gain this year.
This week, major central banks including the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan will hold policy meetings, among which the decision of the Federal Reserve is the most watched by the market. Fed officials are considering a 1 basis point or 2 basis point interest rate cut, but the odds are currently 50-50. The market is also paying attention to the latest economic growth forecast and power dot chart released by the Fed, which will provide important guidance for the future monetary policy direction.
There is a saying in the market that Bitcoin is a leading indicator of the overall economy, and interest rate cuts are usually a major positive for risk assets such as Bitcoin, which will bring huge liquidity to the market. Therefore, Bitcoin's strong performance before the interest rate cut may be a bullish signal, but is it really so?
After the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate cut decision at 2 a.m. on Thursday, cuts of 25 or 50 basis points were still within market expectations, but a 75 basis point cut could indicate that the risk of the U.S. economy falling into recession is greater than expected, which could cause Bitcoin to fluctuate more violently. Investors and friends should pay attention to risk control.
In addition, in addition to the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision announced at 2 a.m., Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 a.m. to express his views on future policies. If he is too hawkish, it may impact market sentiment.
In terms of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin continued to rebound after hitting a low of $57,431 at midnight yesterday, and rose rapidly after 10 pm, reaching $61,343 at around 11 pm, the highest price since September. However, selling pressure subsequently emerged and the price failed to continue to rise. It began to fluctuate and fall after early morning today. As of the time of writing, the price was quoted at $59,915, and the increase in the past 24 hours has converged to 4.36%.
Since the Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate decision later, I will give specific market analysis and suggestions. I will briefly talk about the 25 basis point and 50 basis point interest rate cuts for your reference.
The market generally believes that the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is greater than a 25 basis point rate cut, which is good news for Bitcoin. However, Daxian believes that if the rate cut is 25 basis points this time, it is lower than expected, and the positive impact has been digested in advance, the price of Bitcoin will rise first and then fall, or even fall directly. If the 50 basis point rate cut is in line with market expectations, it will indirectly indicate that the US economy is in a serious recession and US stocks have fallen sharply. Although they will turn to safe-haven assets, it is not a long-term solution. Then the price of Bitcoin may soar first, and after digesting the sentiment of a 50 basis point rate cut, the price will continue to fall. (Daxian is personally optimistic about a 25 basis point rate cut)
Writing time: (2024-09-18,19:40)
(Text-Daxian Talks about Coins)
