FX168 Financial News Agency (Asia Pacific) reported that since September 9, USDT, the world's largest dollar stablecoin, has been trading at a 0.3% discount to the USD/CNY, meaning that investors have been cashing out. Derivatives data show that even as Bitcoin approaches the $61,000 mark, Bitcoin investors lack enthusiasm. #Bitcoin Latest News#
Assessing China's demand for stablecoins is crucial to Bitcoin's performance and can serve as an indicator for traders to enter or exit the cryptocurrency market. The USDT premium measures the difference between the value of USDT and the official RMB-USD exchange rate.
Data shows that demand for stablecoins in China remains weak as USDT has been trading at a 0.3% discount since Sept. 9, suggesting that investors have been cashing out.
Source: CoinTelegraph
Derivatives data show that even as Bitcoin prices approach the $61,000 mark, Bitcoin investors lack enthusiasm. Traders remain skeptical that the bullish momentum can continue, especially before the Federal Reserve announces its September interest rate decision later on Wednesday (September 18), and many are reluctant to increase their positions.
CoinTelegraph pointed out that Bitcoin's price movement is consistent with the S&P 500 index, which hit a record high after macroeconomic data raised the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. retail sales rose 0.1% month-on-month in August. Meanwhile, industrial production grew 0.8% that month, mainly driven by the recovery of automobiles and parts.
Previously, investors were worried that the U.S. economy was falling into a recession, especially in the consumer sector due to rising financing costs. Some analysts believe that the stock market has entered a bubble stage, and the overvaluation of technology companies and the overleverage of the financial system are factors that led to the bubble. Cracks have appeared in the commercial real estate market. Therefore, the recent pick-up in economic activity helps reduce the risk of a stock market correction.
Currently, the Treasury market is pricing in a 63% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut, up from 34% the previous week, according to the CME Fed Watch tool. However, Stephen Juneau, senior U.S. economist at BofA Securities, said the data released on Tuesday did not significantly change the Fed's view of the economy, according to Yahoo Finance.
To assess whether Bitcoin traders have turned bullish, one must examine the Bitcoin futures premium. In a neutral market, these instruments have an annualized premium of 5% to 10% to compensate for their extended settlement period.
Source: Laevitas.ch
Data shows that the Bitcoin futures premium stabilized at 6% after approaching the neutral 5% level on Monday. Despite the price increase from $57,675 to $61,330, investor sentiment remains cautious. Therefore, whether $61,000 becomes a support level remains a question as traders still lack confidence.
To determine whether this sentiment exists only in the futures market, the Bitcoin options skew indicator should be cross-checked. When arbitrage desks and market makers charge excessive fees to protect downside risk, the 25% Delta skew indicator tends to rise above 6%. Conversely, a -6% Delta skew is usually seen during periods of excitement.
Source: Laevitas.ch
Currently, the 25% skew for Bitcoin options is close to 2%, indicating that put (sell) options are priced similarly to call (buy) options. This neutral sentiment has persisted over the past week, with the last time it was outside this range being on September 6, when Bitcoin briefly traded below $54,000.
