đ Bitcoin's Price Rally to $61K: Why Derivatives Traders Remain Skeptical
Bitcoin recently surged to $61K, breaking above $61,000 for the first time in 3 weeks. However, derivatives data suggests traders aren't convinced the rally will last. Here's why: đ
1. Market Context
⢠BTC price jumped 6.4% in under 12 hours on Sept 17
⢠Mirrors S&P 500 reaching all-time high
⢠Comes ahead of key Fed decision on Sept 18
2. Economic Factors
⢠US retail sales up 0.1% in August
⢠Industrial production grew 0.8%
⢠63% probability of 0.50% interest rate cut priced in
3. Derivatives Data Shows Caution
⢠BTC futures premium at 6% (neutral is 5-10%)
⢠Options skew near 2% (neutral sentiment)
⢠Indicates lack of conviction despite price move
4. Weak Stablecoins Demand in China
⢠Tether trading at 0.3% discount since Sept 9
⢠Suggests investors cashing out
5. Trader Sentiment
⢠Hesitant to add positions pre-Fed decision
⢠Skeptical bullish momentum will continue
⢠Derivatives show modest apathy overall
While Bitcoin's price is up, underlying metrics and trader behavior paint a more cautious picture. The upcoming Fed decision looms large for market direction.
Do you think Bitcoin will fall back to $50K or rally after the Fed rate cut decision?
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