Based on the current analysis of the cryptocurrency market and consideration of several factors such as the Fear and Greed Index, RSI of major assets, as well as the activity of capital inflows and outflows, we can make an assumption about the probabilities of various market development scenarios:
Market growth:
Based on current data and neutral RSI values for most cryptocurrencies (except XRP and SUI, which are closer to the strength zone), the probability that the market will grow in the short term is estimated at 40%. This is explained by the fact that a significant part of the assets are in a state of consolidation, and the market can gather strength for an upward movement. However, the lack of clear overbought signals reduces confidence in a sharp increase.
Market decline:
The probability of a market decline is about 30%. The Fear Index at 33 (fear) indicates investors are cautious, but not panicky. The RSI of most assets is in the neutral zone, which means the market is not yet signaling oversold conditions that would contribute to a sharp decline. However, short-term corrections are possible, especially if investors continue to take profits.
Consolidation:
The probability that the market will remain in a state of consolidation is quite high and is estimated at 30%. Current RSI values indicate a state of balance between buyers and sellers, and a significant part of the assets is in the neutral zone. Consolidation may continue until stronger factors (for example, news or macroeconomic changes) appear that can move the market in one direction or another.
Result:
Probability of growth: 40% Probability of decline: 30% Probability of consolidation: 30%
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