Personally, I think the interest rate will still be cut, but not by 0.5% as the market said, but by 0.25% as expected. I think the Fed wants a smooth landing at present. After all, it does not want to fall into an economic crisis so early, as can be seen from the recent pull-up of US stocks and the revision of economic data.

As for the economic recession in the short term, it is even less likely. The recession speculation in August and September has failed. If there is another speculation, it will depend on the two interest rate cuts in November and December.

So the market trend in the future is that BTC will fall back to 56,000-54,000 in late September after the expected interest rate cut is realized, completing a bottoming action similar to the three tests, and then it will be bullish in October.

As mentioned earlier, there is basically no point to be bearish in the market in October. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations are realized on the 19th, and then there will be no economic data after the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision is over on the 20th. It is a news window period, so the BTC price has a chance to rebound in October.