On the surface, if cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) is good, then slashing them by 50 bps should be even better, right?
But why are some people freaking out now that the market is betting on a 50 bps cut this Wednesday?
Freakout Catalyst #1: While rate cuts can pump extra liquidity (fresh cash) into the market – benefiting risk assets like crypto – large cuts (50 bps or more) are often rare and sometimes signal an approaching recession.
Freakout Catalyst #2: Rate cuts aren't the only way to inject liquidity into the market. There's also QE (Quantitative Easing), the Fed’s process of:
Printing money → loaning it to banks → banks lend it to companies/people → who then spend it, lifting the economy. ⬆️
Typically, rate cuts + QE create a recipe for rising market prices.
But those panicking point to 2008, when multiple rate cuts and QE coincided with the global financial crisis.
Now that you’re sufficiently freaked out, here are 2 key reasons NOT to panic:
1/ 2008's Financial Crisis had a clear catalyst (the housing market collapse).
Right now, there’s no obvious economy-wrecking disaster brewing under the surface.
Staying out of the market because of a vague 'unknown' risk is a sure way to miss out on potential gains.
Fun fact: Missing the 10 best days in the S&P 500 over a 30-year period could have reduced your total portfolio return by 54%! 🤯
2/ The Fed is spending more to support the economy today than it did in 2008.
Back then, the Fed kept a tight grip on spending.
Nowadays, they’re ready to print trillions if it helps keep markets afloat.
Here’s a wild stat:
From 1959 to 2008, the US dollar supply grew to $7.5 trillion. Between 2008 and 2020, the Fed doubled that supply from ~$7.5T to ~$15T. They printed nearly 50 years' worth of money in just over a decade.
Downside: This surge in dollar supply can devalue the currency.
Upside: When this cash flows into scarce assets like crypto, those assets usually increase in value.
Takeaway: Times have changed. The Fed is willing to print massive amounts of money to keep the economy strong. The best way to protect yourself from dollar devaluation? Invest in scarce assets that have a history of long-term growth – like crypto.