The market fluctuated and fell again this morning, and all the gains over the weekend were lost!

Bitcoin started to fluctuate and fall in the early morning of this day (16), reaching a low of $58,260, reversing all the gains made over the weekend.

Ethereum is in even worse shape, falling below the $2,300 mark. Bitcoin is likely to continue to fluctuate up and down, with uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision this week.

The price of Bitcoin fell from 60,000, but did not directly hit 65,000, which is also within expectations. I said yesterday that you can reduce half of your bargain-hunting positions between 6-6.5, which is also a defense against the low market certainty. After all, from a medium- to long-term perspective, this wave of market rebound does not have the conditions for a direct new high, and the pressure of 65,000 naturally requires everyone to be vigilant. The uncertainty in the short term is higher. I can only say that if it hits 65,000 upwards, I will continue to reduce my bargain-hunting positions.

Trump faces another assassination attempt

This morning, Trump was assassinated while playing golf. After the incident, Trump posted "Fight Fight Fight" on the social platform, which caused the price of FIGHT tokens on Ethereum and Solana to rise sharply in a short period of time.

According to data from prediction market Polymarket, Harris's chances of winning fell by 1% after the shooting and are now 50%, surpassing Trump's 49%.

Musk responded to the question of why someone wanted to assassinate Trump on the X platform. He also expressed why no one tried to assassinate Biden or Harris. He also added a "thinking" emoticon.

Some say Trump’s assassination was bearish, and QCP noted that the second failed assassination attempt on Trump coupled with the liquidation of $70 million in long positions led to a decline in the crypto market.

Unlike the rally that followed a similar event in July this year, there is a lot of uncertainty this week could hold, especially with the Token2049 event and the FOMC meeting coming up.

But Trump's failure to be arrested can also be interpreted as a positive. The real reason for the decline is that the U.S. stock market entered a two-week "buyback ban period" on September 15, which means that the U.S. stock market will lose $400 billion in liquidity in the next two weeks. It is not certain whether Bitcoin will follow the rise of the U.S. stock market, but if the U.S. stock market collapses, Bitcoin will definitely collapse! In addition, this Friday is the "Quadruple Witching Day" and the major futures and options delivery date, and the probability of a sudden interest rate cut of 50 basis points has increased to more than 50%.

Key economic events this week: The Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision

Before the Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest interest rate decision on Thursday, the market is paying close attention to the U.S. "retail sales data" to be released tomorrow night. This economic indicator, known as the "horror data," may once again have a significant impact on market sentiment and the direction of the Federal Reserve's decision.

Note: U.S. August retail sales will be released at 20:30 tomorrow (17th).

The probability of a 2-digit rate cut is higher

UBS said it is closely tracking retail sales and industrial production data, which if weak could prompt the Federal Reserve to opt for a larger rate cut of 50 basis points instead of the 25 basis points that is widely expected.

Our "base case" is for the Fed to cut interest rates by a total of 100 basis points over the remainder of the year and another 100 basis points in 2025. The U.S. dollar weakened and gold strengthened as interest rate cuts gathered pace.

According to CME Fedwatch data, the current market expectation for a 1 basis point rate cut (or 25 basis points) is 43%, and the expectation for a 2 basis point rate cut (or 50 basis points) is 57%.

Most of the altcoins are also following the market's correction, among which CKB is the strongest, rising against the trend by more than 15%.

Why is CKB so strong?

This is mainly because Korean investors’ enthusiasm for CKB has driven its price up.

CKB has been actively building the Korean community. After it was launched on Korea’s Upbit exchange, trading volume increased significantly and the maximum price increase reached 308%.

Binance launches 3 MEMEs

Today, BN announced the simultaneous launch of three MEMEs, Neiro, Turbo and Baby Doge Coin.

Lowercase on spot Neiro Uppercase on contract NEIRO

The market has mixed reviews on this

The first sister responded:

To be honest, considering BN’s status in the industry, it is a bit puzzling that several MEMEs are launched so intensively. I took a quick look and found that the liquidity of these MEMEs is very average. Among them, NIERO has risen 4 times since the announcement, which makes it difficult to play in the secondary market.

In fact, there is a detail that should be noted. Binance rarely lists BNB chain, or even none. When I first joined BNB chain, babydoge, which has been issued for more than three years, suddenly listed on BNB chain. I wonder if BNB chain can make any progress this time.