“If employment data weakens from here, markets are likely to trade in a risk-off tone, regardless of whether the first Fed cut is 25 basis points or 50 basis points,” Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, one of the most prominent bears until mid-2024, wrote in a note. On the other hand, if employment improves, he said, the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in a row by mid-2025, which could further support U.S. stock valuations.