According to the Bitfinex Alpha report, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and BTC faces volatility risks. In the past week, BTC ETF recorded a net inflow of US$403.9 million, reversing the long-term outflow of funds, indicating that investors have renewed confidence in the asset.
The rally was driven primarily by aggressive buying in the spot market. In contrast, futures and perpetual contract markets were less volatile, suggesting that the current price rally is based on real capital inflows rather than speculative leverage, providing a more sustainable basis for the rally. However, BTC now faces a critical resistance level between $60,500 and $61,000, which has been crucial since early March. While ETF inflows remain strong, there are signs that a lull may be coming as spot CVD (the difference between buy and sell orders on an exchange) flattened over the weekend.
Analysts believe that the possibility of market volatility this week is quite high, driven by investors' expectations of the Federal Reserve's rate cut decision. Whether the rate cut is 25 or 50 basis points, it is likely to swing between bullish optimism and cautious risk-taking. At the same time, Bitcoin's correlation with stocks is increasing, indicating that the trends in traditional financial markets may have an increasing impact on Bitcoin's price. Bitcoin has also decoupled from gold, which hit a record high last week, indicating that in a risk-averse environment, investors' preferences are turning to traditional safe-haven assets.
