Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) Pre-Market Price Splits 15 Times After Project Announces Total Supply
The project’s whitepaper released in July did not reveal the total supply of HMSTR, and the pre-market still valued HMSTR at over $0.1. But with the latest whitepaper update from the project in September, the total supply was revealed to be 100,000,000,000 HMSTR, causing the pre-marker price to split more than 15 times.
Currently, on OKX Pre-market (a market for tokens that have not yet been officially listed on the exchange), HMSTR is priced at $0.01, while the price was above $0.1 a day ago. Recently, other tap-to-earn tokens like DOGS also dropped in pre-market price when tokenomics were announced, which proves that users often fall into a state of overvaluing the project.
However, HMSTR has many differences compared to DOGS, it is likely that the project will be undervalued compared to DOGS, and the price of HMSTR will continue to fall to a deeper level when it is officially listed, especially in the context of the September market.
Arguments to predict the price of Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) when it goes public
First, a comparison table of recently listed telegram mini app projects can be made, which can help investors make a reasonable valuation of Hamster Kombat (HMSTR). Then, add new observations according to the market situation to predict the price fluctuations of HMSTR when it is listed.
Compare tokenomics of Tap-to-earn projects.
If we use the same comparison argument, valuing HMSTR's FDV in the range of 571 million - 790 million like recent projects, then HMSTR would be priced in the range of 0.0057 USD - 0.0079 USD. That is 40% to 20% lower than the current pre-market price.
The above data is as of the time of writing, meaning the market has recently experienced a decline. If we compare it to the data when it was first listed, DOGS had a peak market capitalization of $840 million and NOT had a peak market capitalization of $2.92 billion. Accordingly, the peak price of HMSTR could be between $0.014 and $0.048.
However, such a high price is unlikely to happen because the market context of 09 is different from the time of NOT and DOGS's listing. Firstly, the number of players of Hamster Kombat is too large (10 times that of NOT and 6 times that of DOGS), which will cause the initial selling pressure to be greater. Secondly, HMSTR was launched later, making the expectation psychology not as good as the previous project.
The market in September is showing signs of saturation of tap-to-earn projects. Players seem to have estimated in advance how much they will earn after many projects are listed on the exchange. In addition, investors are now stuck with a lot of capital in altcoins, no longer having enough money to continue buying and holding a new coin.
Another important argument that makes it difficult for HMSTR to maintain its upward momentum is that the project did not release its entire supply to the market like other projects, but only 60%. Therefore, selling pressure will continue in the post-listing phase.
The above valuation data may change until HMSTR officially lists. But it can be predicted that if the above valuation does not change much, HMSTR may have a high of $0.014 and a low of $0.005 when listed. DOGS and NOT both recorded a -40% to -60% drop in a few weeks when listed, so it is necessary to anticipate that HMSTR will also decrease by a similar amount.
Source: https://vn.tradingview.com/news/providers/beincrypto
