Is the market bullish or bearish? Can you still buy at the bottom?
The price has dropped so much that it’s frightening. Is the bull market still there?
In order to better analyze the current trend, Biteye has compiled 7 BTC bottom-picking indicators to help you judge market sentiment and coin price fluctuations from multiple angles! 🚀
Like and collect, and learn slowly. 📖👇
⭐️ Ahr999 Index: Hodling indicator
✅ Current value: 0.6, in the fixed investment range
✅ Interpretation: The indicator implies the rate of return of short-term fixed investment in Bitcoin and the deviation of Bitcoin price from expected valuation.
0.45 bottom line, 1.2 fixed investment line
When AHR999 index < 0.45, the indicator will suggest buying the dip
When the AHR999 index is between 0.45-1.2, the indicator will recommend buying fixed investment
When the AHR999 index >1.2, the price of the currency is already high and it is not suitable for operation.
✅ Trend review: The index has been fluctuating around 1.2 since mid-April, and has completely fallen below 1.2 since June, entering the fixed investment range. In the past three months, it has been approaching the bottom line of 0.45.
🔗 Indicator link: https://coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/ahr999
⭐️ Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart: Bitcoin long-term valuation tool
✅ Current value: In a relatively cold market range, suitable for buying
✅ Interpretation: Use the logarithmic growth curve to predict the potential future price direction of Bitcoin. There are 10 color bands in total. The warmer colors on the top indicate that the market is overheated, which is a better selling point; the colder colors indicate that the market sentiment is depressed, which is a better buying point.
✅ Trend review: Since the beginning of this year, the price of Bitcoin has basically been in a cooler color range. The market is not yet overheated, and the recent price is suitable for buying.
🔗 Indicator link: https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/
⭐️ Relative Strength Index: Price trend long and short judgment
✅ Current value: 58.41, not yet reaching the bottom-picking range
✅ Interpretation: The RSI indicator determines whether the recent trend is bullish or bearish by calculating price changes over a period of time. The score is evaluated relative to the previous 12 months.
A high RSI means that price action is very positive relative to the previous 12 months
A low RSI means that price movement is very negative relative to the previous 12 months
RSI >70: Bitcoin is overbought and may fall soon, so you can sell it
RSI<30: Bitcoin is oversold and may reverse upward, so you can buy the dip
✅ Trend review: Judging from the historical prices, the RSI indicator has not fallen below 30. When referring to this indicator, you can judge it as the closer it is to 30, the more oversold it is, and the closer it is to 70, the more overbought it is.
🔗 Indicator link: https://charts.bitbo.io/monthly-rsi/
⭐️ 2-Year MA Multiplier: A long-term investment tool
✅ Current value: BTC 57604 USD, in the price neutral range
2-year moving average (2YMA): 38,018
2YMA x5: 190,092
✅ Interpretation:
Using the 2 Year Moving Average (green line), and the 5x product of that moving average (red line), we highlight the periods when buying and selling Bitcoin would have produced huge returns.
Price < 2YMA (green line): Price is at a historical low, buy the dip
Price > 2YMA x5 (red line): Price is at a historical high, sell at the top
If the price is between the moving averages, it is in a neutral position.
✅ Trend review: It is currently in a neutral range, and it is not yet time to buy the bottom. From May 22 to October 23, the indicator was in the bottom-fishing range.
🔗 Indicator link: https://bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/bitcoin-investor-tool/
⭐️ Net-Unrealized-Profit-Loss: Profit and loss of on-chain transactions
✅ Current value: 45.33%, not the best buying range
✅ Interpretation: Assess market sentiment by calculating the unrealized profits or losses of all investors holding Bitcoin.
NUPL < 0: Extreme fear of market losses, buy at the bottom
NUPL 0-0.25: Micro-profit area, also suitable for buying
NUPL 0.25-0.5: Bull-bear transition, slowly entering the bull market
NUPL 0.5-0.75: Strong bullish sentiment
NUPL 0.75-1: Extremely greedy, considering escaping the top
That is, the further NUPL deviates from 0, the closer the market trend is to a bottom or a top.
✅ Trend review: Since January 23, the market has been out of the loss range and gradually profitable. From February to July this year, RSI was 0.5, and the bullish sentiment was strong. However, in the past two months, RSI fell to the 0.25-0.5 range, and market sentiment also fell.
🔗 Indicator link: https://bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/relative-unrealized-profit--loss/
⭐️ Realized HODL Ratio: Market Activity and Speculation
✅ Current value: 2689.22, neutral range
✅ Interpretation: By comparing the number of bitcoins held in different time periods, such as the number of UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs) in the short term (within 1 month) and the long term (more than 1 year), the market activity and speculation are measured. A higher value means that there are more short-term holders and the market is more speculative; a lower value means that there are more long-term holders and the market is more stable.
When approaching the red zone, the market is overheated and it is suitable for profit taking.
When approaching the green area, the price of the currency is relatively cold, suitable for bottom-fishing buying
✅ Trend Review: Since January 23, RHODL Ratio has gradually moved out of the green area and shown an upward trend. It has been in a volatile downward trend in the past few months, reflecting that the market heat has subsided, but it has not yet completely entered the cooling stage.
🔗 Indicator link: https://bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/rhodl-ratio/
⭐️MVRV指标（Market Value to Realized Value Ratio）
✅ Current value: 1.83, the market has not entered the bottom range
✅ Interpretation: MVRV is a relative indicator, which is the ratio of the circulating market value (Market Cap, MV) to the realized market value (Realized Cap, RV), that is, the ratio of the total market value of BTC to the market value calculated from the last activity price of BTC, representing the profitability of BTC holders.
MVRV > 3.5, the market has reached its peak, holders have made large profits, and tend to sell
MVRV < 1, the market has reached the bottom, most holders are in a loss state, the willingness to hold is greater than the willingness to sell, and the probability of price increase increases.
✅ Trend review: Over the past three or four months, the indicator has been on a downward trend, and holders' profits have slowly decreased. The closer to the bottom range, the easier it is for the market to rebound.
🔗 Indicator link: https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/market-indicator/mvrv-ratio?window=DAY&sma=0&ema=0&priceScale=log&metricScale=log&chartStyle=line
💡 Risk warning: The market is highly volatile. The above is only for information sharing and not investment advice.
