The current market is showing a volatile trend, especially in early September, when the market performance was not satisfactory. Although the market has rebounded to a certain extent recently, it does not mean that the market has turned for the better. It is expected that after this wave of rise, the market is likely to face downward pressure again, and we should be more vigilant about potential risks.
In particular, on September 18, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Several key factors behind this decision include:
1) The inflation rate has fallen, indicating that the pressure of rising prices is easing.
2) The number of non-farm payrolls has increased, showing signs of recovery in the labor market.
3) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is in line with expectations, further confirming the robustness of economic data.
These signs indicate that the US economy remains strong. In order to further promote economic growth, stimulate consumption and expand employment opportunities, a rate cut in September seems to be a reasonable choice. Considering that the economy has not yet shown signs of recession, a direct rate cut of 50 basis points is unlikely. Therefore, a more cautious 25 basis point cut is more likely to be adopted when the interest rate is cut for the first time.
