Today, many friends have various opinions on the rise of Bitcoin (BTC), such as MSTR's purchase of BTC, the Federal Reserve's possible 50 basis point interest rate cut, and the SEC's interpretation of Token securitization. Indeed, in addition to the expectation of a 50 basis point interest rate cut, other factors did contribute to the recovery of market sentiment, but the key factor that really drove this rise was probably the SEC's impact on Token securitization.

Compared with the previous nervous attitude of considering all tokens as securities, the SEC officials have made significant progress this time. They now believe that some tokens may have adopted securities methods when they were sold, but not all tokens must be considered securities. This change in attitude is a relief for many token projects, especially those in Europe and the United States, because it reduces the risk of them becoming the target of SEC supervision. The market naturally gave positive feedback to this.

At present, the market's expectations are still mainly focused on the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut. As for the discussion and expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut, further news may be needed to promote it, especially to see whether Nick will add some more firepower to strengthen expectations in this regard.

Will the September rate cut of 25 or 50 correspond to a rise or fall in BTC?

The conclusion is that according to the current trend, if Nick does not release the specific reasons for the 50 basis point rate cut before the interest rate meeting, and finally announces a 50 basis point rate cut, then the risk market is more likely to fall within 40 minutes (30 minutes waiting time + 10 minutes opening remarks) between the announcement of the rate cut and the speech of Fed Chairman Powell. If the Fed chooses to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, the market's expected reaction will be relatively stable, with a small increase in the probability.

It is not difficult to see from the narrative cited by Nick that a 50% interest rate cut is likely to trigger market panic about economic recession, so it is said that "the Fed needs to use a lot of words to make the interest rate cut too large to cause panic and worry." Therefore, before Powell comes out to explain the 50 basis point interest rate cut, the probability of market panic is very high.

Analysis of BTC's future market trends

This year's market is basically the same as last year's market from April to October. Last year, it was a narrow range of fluctuations, fluctuating in the range of 25000u-32000u. This year, it is a large-scale fluctuation, doing deep back and forth washing in the range of 50000u-73000u. The washing here is to wash more of the contract positions of the entire network. In the above picture, there is a long-short ratio of the large households in the entire network. You can see that it is an obvious downward trend. At the same time, you can take a look at the BTC contract positions of the exchange

I think there are two possible outcomes for the next market situation:

First: BTC has formed a head-and-shoulders bottom structure in the current market. The market will still be dominated by fluctuations in the next 20 days. The 25 basis point interest rate cut in September has little impact on the overall market. The market will continue to fluctuate upward, and a major market will start after mid-October.

Second: After the rate cut is implemented, the economic recession is confirmed, and Japan starts to make trouble, there will be a wave of liquidation of deep contracts, and the bottom of 49,000 will be tested again to see if this price can hold up. But I think that once it falls below 52,000, the target will not be 49,000, but the range of 46,000 to 48,000, but it should not last for a long time. This price is mainly for liquidation of contracts.

What should we do now?

Is it a rebound or a reversal? It doesn’t matter. It is important to think about a few questions:

1. If it is a reversal, is the position large enough? If it is not large enough or close to an empty position, how to get on board and at what position to intervene?

2. If it is just a rebound, in the market that is pulling back and forth, should you sell the chips in your hand that are at a relatively low level?

3. The current market is very unfriendly to short-term players, so would it be a better choice to expand the space and time?

4. If you decide to start selling your stocks in the next year's crazy bull market, many high-quality underlying assets are very cost-effective. Don't easily consider whether they will fall or rise in the short term. Even if the cost-effectiveness is very high,

At this time next year, the price will definitely be higher than it is now. How much higher? How much can you earn? It depends on the underlying assets you select. For example, when the BTC price is $58,000 today, if you were at $26,000 or $28,000 last year, is it meaningful to enter the market? Do you still care?

5. You must have your own reasonable position management plan, and know clearly how much you want to earn in this round? How to roll positions? How to change positions? Instead of buying everything you see?

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