The economic data released by the United States this week were mostly within expectations, and Bitcoin fluctuated within a narrow range, focusing on next week's FOMC interest rate meeting. The following is a summary of this week’s important events, on-chain data updates, and events that need attention next week. (Preliminary summary: Bitcoin’s $58,000 Defense Battle> US August PPI and unemployment data are released, and the probability of the Fed cutting 1 yard next week increases) (Background supplement: Commentary> The US interest rate cut is coming soon, and it is really the antidote to the crypto market ?) A quick overview of important events this week (9/9-9/13) The CPI, PPI and unemployment data released this week are basically within the expected range, and Bitcoin continues to fluctuate between 55,000 and 58,000 US dollars. It is expected that the Federal Reserve may not make a direction until the results of the FOMC meeting next week are released. The U.S. Congress held its first hearing on decentralized finance (DeFi) on the 10th. The Republicans shouted for changes in finance, while the Democrats criticized helping the rich to evade taxes. They had different opinions. After former U.S. President Trump held his first televised debate with Kamala Harris on the 11th, the latter was widely expected to perform better, and Trump-related concept stocks and meme coins fell. However, Standard Chartered Bank believes that no matter who is elected in the future, it will not hinder the rise of BTC, and Bitcoin will reach a new high by the end of the year. This week, many celebrities claimed that Ke Wenzhe may have accepted 15 million yuan in cryptocurrency bribes from Shen Qingjing, chairman of Weijin Group. However, they are basically at an unverifiable stage, and their understanding of blockchain is also problematic. Readers are advised to think carefully. OpenAI launches a new reasoning model "OpenAI o1". Officially, it says that just like humans, it will improve its thinking process, try different strategies, and recognize its own mistakes. Apple has released a redesigned iPhone 16 series, but veteran commentators say the lack of innovation is worrisome. Changes in trading market data this week Sentiment and sectors 1. Fear and Greed Index This week’s market sentiment indicator rose from 25.88 (fear) to 46.2 (neutral) in the middle of the week and then dropped to 37 (fear). Although market sentiment once tried to return to the neutral range, it failed to last and remained in the "fear zone". 2. Funding rate heat map The funding rate heat map shows the changing trend of funding rates for different cryptocurrencies. The color ranges from green with zero rate to yellow with 50% positive rate. Black represents negative rate;The white K-line chart shows Bitcoin price fluctuations, contrasting with the funding rate. This week’s Bitcoin funding rate showed that in every 8-hour settlement period, more than half of 12 out of 21 times the rate was negative, reflecting the strong short power in the market. Source: Coinglass 3. Sector According to artemis data, the average increase in the blockchain sector this week was 9.8%, with AI, Bridge, and RWA occupying the top three with 16.4%, 15.2%, and 13.4% respectively. The three worst-performing blockchain areas are DePIN (-0.8%), centralized exchanges (2.0%), and DeFi (2.0%). Image source: artemis Market Liquidity 1. The total market value of cryptocurrency returned to the US$2 trillion mark this week, and the total supply of stablecoins gradually entered the market. Data on the total market value of cryptocurrency this week showed that it rose to 2.04 from US$1.99 trillion last week. trillion US dollars, an increase of US$50 billion, and the total market value increased by approximately 2.51%; the total supply of stablecoins, an important indicator of market health and liquidity, increased from US$157.7 billion to US$158.2 billion this week, an increase of US$500 million. The increase is approximately 0.317%. Bitcoin technical indicators 1. Net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETF funds. This week, Bitcoin ETF funds outflowed US$29.3 million, showing a clear trend of fund outflows. Source: Coinglass 2. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart shows that the current price of Bitcoin is in the "Consider Buying" range ($58,000) and is close to the "Special Sale" stage ($51,000). This may be a Potential buying opportunity, the market still believes that Bitcoin is undervalued. 3. Miners invest in equipment, and computing power breaks new highs. Despite market fluctuations, miners continue to increase investment in equipment. This week’s Bitcoin computing power data showed that it broke a new high (14D-MA) and reached 666.48 EH/s. 4. Bitcoin miners’ additional income has dropped significantly. On the other hand, according to Glassnode data, since Bitcoin’s market price reached a new peak in March, miners’ income has dropped significantly. In addition to price declines, transaction fees have also dropped. A reason. This year, the proportion of additional transaction fees for Bitcoin miners in revenue (purple line) was 22.35% in early January due to the hot inscription market, and 21.35% in mid-May due to runes.7%, and now the proportion has dropped to 2.35% in mid-September. If the currency price fails to grow, the pressure on miners may intensify. Bitcoin: Miner Income Breakdown 4. Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Continue to Increase According to on-chain data, the net position of long-term holders (LTH) has continued to increase over the past seven days, showing that the market’s long-term confidence in Bitcoin has not been broken. . Starting from the end of July, the net position of long-term holders has obviously turned from negative to positive. Especially from mid-August to September, the increase gradually expanded, showing that long-term holders are continuously accumulating Bitcoin positions. Important technical indicators of Ethereum 1. The Ethereum ETF market has performed poorly. The Ethereum ETF market has performed poorly recently. The redemption of grayscale ETHE products resulted in a total outflow of $13.1 million, highlighting the difference in demand between BTC and ETH. 2. Bitcoin rises, and other currencies generally rise. This week’s data shows that the price correlation between Bitcoin and Solana reached 0.96, and the correlation with Binance Coin and Ethereum were 0.92 and 0.93 respectively, reflecting the correlation between these mainstream currencies and Bitcoin’s close linkage. This week’s market analysis news 1. The longest U.S. bond yield inversion in history has ended. Can we escape the fate of economic recession this time? The inversion of U.S. bond yields began in July 2022 and lasted for more than 2 years, setting a record for the longest period in history. This week, the yield rate finally officially lifted its inversion, but the market is beginning to worry. According to historical experience, there is a high probability of an economic recession. Will history repeat itself this time? (Continue reading) 2. The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 2 yards, and Bitcoin may plummet! 10x Research: BTC rebound indicator has recovered from oversold. 10x Research reported in a Monday analysis that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points in September, it may put downward pressure on risk assets including Bitcoin and stocks. (Continue reading) 3. The battle to defend Bitcoin’s $58,000” U.S. August PPI and unemployment data were released, and the Fed’s probability of a 1-digit increase next week was released. The U.S. August PPI data was released, showing that U.S. inflation continues to be under control, and U.S. stocks responded relatively positively , the three major indexes rose. Whether Bitcoin can stand firm above $58,000 and continue its upward trend has become a short-term target of concern. (Continue reading) 4. Bitcoin exchange reserves continue to decline and stablecoins increase. Is it time for BTC to enter the market? The Bitcoin market sentiment has been slightly cold recently. Despite this, two analysts believe that Bitcoin has not entered a bear market;Another believes that Bitcoin’s bullish outlook needs to be watched in the coming weeks. (Continue reading) Cryptocurrency supervision status in various countries 1. SEC warns again...