In the X Space: [Top secret documents exposed! Three sentences to teach you how to trade cryptocurrencies] event initiated by ChainDD, ChainDD deputy editor-in-chief Dorji talked with Unique Capital Partner Thomas, well-known KOL Big Brother Kai in the currency circle, and well-known community KOL Monroe Wenrou, and exchanged views on the future market trends, market hotspots and investment methodology.
What is the future development prospect of MeMe ecosystem opportunities? How long will it take for the DePIN era to come? Development opportunities of the public chain ecosystem, and how to successfully invest in high-quality targets.
The following content is simplified based on X Space content:
1. Brother Sun has been playing MeMe recently. Will the MeMe track become popular again because of Brother Sun?
Thomas：
Memecoin may become the norm for every public chain and every ecosystem in the future. How did I get this data? In the bull market of 2021, the market value of memecoin was less than 100 million US dollars, but this year it can reach 10 billion US dollars, which is a huge number.
Let’s look at memecoin in the Solana ecosystem. Pump.fun in the ecosystem can produce nearly one thousand memecoins every day, and it has successfully gone viral. It has many technical tools. For example, if you don’t understand the contract, Pump.fun will help you issue it. It cannot be reissued or modified, and it can provide soil for people in web2 to enter web3. Currently, Solana can occupy half of the trading volume in DEX. The biggest feature of memecoin is its cultural attribute, which can recharge the cultural attributes and faith of people entering web2.
On the one hand, meme has a lot of wealth-creating effects every day. Its decentralized free transactions, combined with tools and displays, can form a good wealth-creating effect. For example, there are many friends in the DO ecosystem today. Some time ago, many people made a lot of money on memecoin in the DO ecosystem. Therefore, when facing new soil, everyone should try in many areas and dare to try.
Monroe Tenderness:
Sun Ge’s entry always stirs up the water, and it has to be said that he has the ability to turn stone into gold. However, the popularity of the MeMe track does not only rely on the participation of one or two people, but more importantly, the community consensus and continuous innovation behind it. It still takes some valuable and creative meme projects to continue to be popular in this industry.
If Brother Sun can lead a wave of truly valuable and creative MeMe projects, then this track may indeed be on the forefront again. Because in the consensus of many people, Bitcoin is the most successful MeMe project. So I think interaction and services with the real world may bring about sustainable development.
Of course, as rational investors, we must always be wary of bubbles caused by short-term speculation.
2. In the recent years, the narrative of the cryptocurrency circle has evolved from DeFi Summer to GameFi gold farming, and then to L2 construction. Currently, MeMe and DePIN are the hottest in this round of the market. Where are the most likely opportunities in the DePIN track? What are the best 2C scenarios?
Thomas：
During the bull market in 2021, DePIN projects began to emerge in an endless stream. I will not talk about what kind of vision they have. Now many projects have begun to be different from Internet projects. Now many areas cannot be expanded because when people want to contribute data, they can’t get around the network protocol.
What is the biggest innovation of blockchain? It can bypass the existing international currency system and settlement and can be directly C2C. A decentralized communication system can allow these devices to flow on this network. ICP has tried hard, but I believe there are many such communication protocols that can reshape the decentralized communication protocol, which can be the scene of DePIN prosperity. The explosion of this application scenario and the emergence of future protocols, just like the Internet, can form culture and build infrastructure.
The cost of infrastructure is very high now, so there is a lot of room for imagination.
DePIN needs to generate an information direction similar to silicon-based civilization, so that many people will be willing to focus on this direction, which will make it possible for decentralized and permissionless intervention in the source of DePIN facilities. At present, this is a threshold in terms of basic hardware. With the deepening of the Internet, blockchain, Web3, and Token culture, this threshold has actually gradually made many people aware of this.
DePIN has been implemented. It can not only allow devices to access this network, but also allow personal data to be connected. The data accumulated by the devices and the network is valuable. This is a direction that requires many people to work together.
Big Brother Kai in the currency circle:
DePIN is a combination of hardware. If it is easier for users to access, mobile phones are a good direction. A friend of mine bought several Solana phones before, and the short tokens have already made back 2 or 3 times their investment. Recently, I came across a BNB phone. This will be a trend in the future. With the increase in Web3 users, it will be more convenient for everyone to operate on their mobile phones through Web3 phones. Now many applications are still quite difficult for novice users. In the future, this kind of cooperation with mobile phone hardware manufacturers will be a good trend.
Monroe Tenderness:
I think the opportunity of DePIN (decentralized Internet of Things) lies more in its ability to truly connect the real world and blockchain and solve some practical problems. I boldly predict that in the next few years, we may see large-scale applications of DePIN in smart cities, smart life, and Internet of Things payments.
I always feel that no matter what I do, it is based on serving people, so I think that among food, clothing, housing and transportation, the two scenarios of housing and transportation will be better and easier to implement.
Many of us working in web3 work from home, and we actually spend a lot of time at home. I think it would be cool if we had a set of smart home devices at home that could safely trade data through blockchain and enable real-time transactions in any usage scenario at home.
Secondly, in travel scenarios, for example, electric vehicles can obtain the best electricity price in the distributed network, which are all very promising 2C scenarios.
For example, decentralized storage and computing, these infrastructures can not only support DApps, but also bring new business models and create innovative concepts for smart cities.
3. Why has Solana gradually become the preferred public chain for the DePIN project, and even the standard public chain? In the next few years, what innovative technologies may appear on the Solana and TON platforms, especially in the fields of DePIN and gaming? In addition to SOL and TON, what other opportunities are there in the public chain track?
Thomas：
We need to look at public chains from a broad perspective. There are more than 100 countries in the world, and the currency systems are relatively large, such as the US dollar, the euro, and the RMB, plus some other circulation bodies, there are 20 to 30. You can understand it this way, each public chain has a currency system (Token issuance system). With the rise of Solana, it has attracted a large number of people from Web2 to Web3.
If we look at it from a global perspective of public chains, there are far more than that. If we view the previous monetary system as a plane, Web3 is three-dimensional. You will find that the application layers of all public chains, such as Solana and Ethereum, have been layered, such as Flow, which focuses on sports, and Solana, which is suitable for the meme ecosystem. The future public chain system will have more currencies than the existing sovereign system.
A public chain area has a good experience with wallets and exchanges, and the nodes are very popular. For example, Solana and Ethereum, their nodes are very popular, and the cost of building nodes is getting higher and higher. If you find an excellent public chain with a good experience and good decentralization, you can enter and build nodes early, which is a bonus period.
Big Brother Kai in the currency circle:
Public chains were a hot track in 2017, but I think there are more traps than opportunities in this area. Various public chains have emerged one after another. The largest public chain is Ethereum. There is not much novelty in technology. Is there any large capital area layout? Have you found some potential ecosystem builders? Public chains still focus on Ethereum. Many public chains are also studying the innovations of Ethereum to replicate them.
Monroe Tenderness:
Solana’s low transaction fees, strong support, high technical throughput and low latency are quite attractive to the DePIN project. Especially in scenarios that require real-time data transmission and processing. In addition, the active developer community of the Solana ecosystem is also one of its attractions.
In the coming years, we may see smarter IoT devices, on-chain games, and innovative applications of decentralized computing on Solana and TON.
As for the public chain track, I think there are still many opportunities on other high-performance chains, such as Sui and base. These new-generation public chains may perform well in specific areas such as DeFi derivatives or cross-chain interoperability.
4. How to butcher an ox: You can analyze and deconstruct your own project or a familiar project to learn how to choose the project track and ecology, and how to operate a project well.
Thomas：
I can explain DO in detail. I invested in this project in 2019. At its peak, the price reached more than 50 yuan, and the number of users exceeded 50,000.
In 2021 and 2022, I actually thought that there was no room for improvement in DO technology and I lost confidence. Later, I changed direction and began to lay out in the Bitcoin ecosystem. BTC L2 actually did not solve the problems of gas fees and fast circulation, and at this time I found that the DO ecosystem was on the rise again.
We should pay attention to user data and application data, and you will find that you have to go through layers of screening when you participate in a project. As for high-growth ecosystems, any project you invest in will be supported by the foundation. So now I have to pay more attention to introducing some ecosystems and application directions for DO. We should pay more attention to these potential opportunities in this industry.
Big Brother Kai in the currency circle:
The most amazing project is Bitcoin. For an amazing project, it is enough to just look at its highlights. Profits can be shared but not monopolized, and plans can be made by a few but not by many. You have to distribute the chips so that the project can be bigger. It is best for the founder to disappear or not appear again. Among the top ten projects, Satoshi Nakamoto disappeared, and CZ also disappeared. They were launched actively or passively. A good project must be decentralized, and it is best to distribute your own rights.
Monroe Tenderness:
Choosing a track and ecosystem is like choosing the battlefield that suits you best. First of all, you need to look at the popularity and competition of the track. A track that is too hot is prone to price wars, while a track that is too cold may attract no attention.
Secondly, the ecosystem selection should consider the actual needs of the project, such as technical support, community activity and cooperation opportunities. When operating a project, I think it is important to maintain flexibility, quickly adjust strategies according to market changes, and constantly interact with the community and listen to feedback. After all, the community is also a very important communication channel.
Ultimately, successful projects are often those that balance innovation and practicality, community and market.
5. After the recent market downturn, the BTC price continues to be below 60,000. When the market is down, how should we adjust our positions? How will the market analysis go in the near future? Will BTC break through the 70,000 mark before the end of the year?
Thomas：
Regarding the market, I am very concerned about the US election and economic index. This is our view of the United States from Web3. There are many uncertainties, but what is certain is that BTC will go up. In this process, who can hold on to the end is very important. Recently, I think I can go short a little. 50% of my positions are on Solana, 30% on DO, and the rest are on other digital assets. Why is it allocated like this? I think if Solana, the current hot chicken, can continue, it will have more continuity. After the SBF incident, many of its assets were divided up by mainstream assets. They bought at a price of more than 90, which is basically their bottom. On the other hand, its transactions on DEX surpassed Ethereum. This may be the foundation of its middle power.
For a newly developed public chain like DO, in the early stages of development, you need to focus more on this track and invest in its ecosystem.
Pay attention to data, focus on cognition, and break through your own cognitive boundaries.
Big Brother Kai in the currency circle:
The cryptocurrency world is now greatly influenced by the United States. BlackRock now holds more than 300,000 bitcoins. Institutions such as BlackRock and Grayscale hold more than 1 million bitcoins, surpassing Satoshi Nakamoto. American capital will vigorously deploy Bitcoin because the U.S. debt crisis has exceeded 25 trillion. It will take more than 100 years for him to pay off this debt.
Trump previously introduced an advisory group, saying that the government would hold more than 4 million bitcoins, and that raising the price of bitcoin to 1 million U.S. dollars would be able to wipe out the U.S. debt.
This is the obvious strategy of the United States. Everyone should hold on to the big pie and then try new opportunities.
Monroe Tenderness:
In this market, there is a classic saying - 'earn coins in a bull market and make money in a bear market'.
When the market goes down, it is necessary to adjust positions appropriately and maintain cash flow. However, this does not mean that you should completely exit the market, especially for investors who are optimistic about BTC in the long term. The current price range may last for a while. I expect BTC to hit 70,000 by the end of the year, but it requires the cooperation of the macro environment, such as economic recovery or favorable policies. Facing the current market, I think it is best to win in a stable way and be cautious.
