There are currently three key factors in the market that have a great impact on the price of Bitcoin!
The first is the political and regulatory environment, which has been a major headwind for the cryptocurrency market over the past two years.
That pressure has intensified in recent months as expected changes clash with a lack of regulatory progress. In addition, with the upcoming introduction of monetary easing policies, there is still uncertainty in the market.
The second factor is global currency depreciation, exacerbating overall financial instability. However, a key point is Bitcoin’s strong correlation with stocks. Historically, whenever interest rates start to fall, the stock market tends to experience a sharp correction. This was hinted at in early August, and many are anticipating a more significant pullback in the near future, which could also impact the cryptocurrency.
Finally, market sentiment appears to be driving a self-fulfilling prophecy, with many expecting September to be a difficult month. Therefore, one would be cautious and probably wait until October or November when things are expected to stabilize, especially with upcoming tax obligations.
No big catalysts yet for the future?
Aside from Trump’s rising poll numbers, there aren’t many obvious positives for the cryptocurrency market right now. With only one debate scheduled and plenty of time between now and November, it's unclear how markets will react. On the equity side, I see some large tech stocks (like semiconductors) taking a hit, but other quality stocks quietly doing well.
With interest rate cuts on the horizon, some worry it could herald a recession. While interest rate cuts typically boost markets, they often occur because of a slowing economy, which can lead to more uncertainty.
Therefore, we must maintain a certain degree of awe for the market, and at the same time control our own hands. Before there is a very certain trend of the wind direction, we should open positions cautiously and keep our current positions as a bargaining chip.
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