Yesterday, on the CNBC website, an article was published in which the hypothesis is ventured that the price of Bitcoin could reach six figures regardless of who wins the US presidential elections in November.

The hypothesis indeed imagines that after the U.S. presidential elections, a new bullrun could start, capable of bringing the price of Bitcoin above $100,000.

The article from CNBC: Bitcoin price skyrockets thanks to the USA elections

The article, published in the Crypto World section, was written by Tanaya Macheel.

Macheel is indeed a journalist for CNBC, and she deals with markets and investments with a particular focus on cryptocurrencies, since 2014.

Periodically appears also in the television programming of the broadcaster, and her articles are regularly published on CNBC.com. She is also one of the hosts of the daily digital show of CNBC “Crypto World”. 

The article is quite in-depth, and it does not seem to be an excessively optimistic gamble. 

Furthermore, Macheel cites some statements made to her by the head of private clients and family offices at Swan Bitcoin, Steven Lubka. 

The bullish hypothesis on the price of Bitcoin

Macheel begins the article by saying that Bitcoin will thrive in the long term, regardless of who wins the U.S. presidential elections in November.

He refers to it as a point of view that many investors in crypto are starting to accept. 

The point is that in case of a Trump victory, the crypto markets could react well in the short term, while a Harris victory might not generate such a reaction, but in the medium/long term the differences could diminish significantly, eventually disappearing sooner or later. 

Lubka, for example, believes that almost certainly the price of Bitcoin during 2025 will end up rising above $100,000, regardless of the outcome of the November elections.

He said: 

“Bitcoin has always been an investment that is rooted more in the fiscal and monetary profile of countries, sovereigns, and the United States. Neither candidate will change this.”

Lubka obviously is not impartial, but at least is a person who knows Bitcoin well. 

Other confirmations

Macheel also reports the words of other experts who essentially think the same way. 

For example, the co-founder of the trading platform Crypto Valley Exchange, James Davies, thinks that the fears that a possible Harris presidency could somehow limit the growth of the price of Bitcoin, or even make it go down, are exaggerated.

Perhaps the crypto sector as a whole would face greater difficulties, but this could have only a marginal impact on the price trend of BTC in the medium/long term. 

Davies added: 

“The truth is that the market is solid, it is not centered on the United States and it has not reacted negatively to the major events from both sides.”

The exaggerated fears

According to Lubka, some overestimate the risks of a potential Harris presidency, particularly due to the hostility that the sector has experienced during the current Biden administration. 

On the other hand, Kamala Harris is the current vice-president of Joe Biden, that is, an integral part of his democratic government, and in the last 4 years, the crypto sector in the USA has been targeted by a long series of accusations, mainly from the SEC, many of which have later turned out to be fallacious. 

Lubka points out, however, that the signals emerging from Harris’s attitude towards the crypto world seem to all intents and purposes a de-escalation of the contrarian rhetoric of the Biden era.

An aspect that is not addressed in the article, and that could explain both the escalation of recent years and the recent de-escalation, is the involvement of many democratic politicians in the FTX case. 

The founder and former CEO of FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried, had donated many millions of dollars primarily to Democratic politicians, drawing the funds, however, from those belonging to the users of the exchange. 

FTX in November 2022 went bankrupt, and SBF was then arrested and convicted. 

It is not a coincidence that the democratic escalation against cryptocurrencies happened right after November 2022, and it is probably not a coincidence either that the de-escalation started after the conviction of SBF. 

The post-elections

According to the founder and president of the investment advisor 401 Financial, Tyrone Ross, the results of the US presidential elections will actually have minimal effects on Bitcoin’s performance in the next 12-18 months. 

Lubka, however, adds that if Trump wins in November, there would be an immediate pump, while if Harris wins, the selling pressure could increase in the short term, but in the medium term, all of this will be forgotten. 

Furthermore, since Biden took office in January 2021, the price of Bitcoin has gone from around $35,000 to the current $58,000, so even with years of accusations its trend has been more than positive. 

Macheel adds that since 2012 Bitcoin has been the asset with the best performance in all years, except in three. 

According to the head of strategy at the crypto wallet operator Tonkeeper, Daniel Cawrey, there will probably still be a recovery in the crypto market, also because these same elections have brought the debate on cryptocurrencies to the forefront. Furthermore, he points out that, unlike Biden, Harris has not adopted a non-interventionist approach towards cryptocurrencies since she was promoted to Democratic candidate, and has spoken with stakeholders in the sector. 

Therefore, if in the short term the impact of the outcome of the US presidential elections on November 5 on the price of Bitcoin could be temporarily significant, in the medium/long term it should simply fade away.