Market environment and macroeconomics
Influence of US economic data: After the release of the US CPI data in August, overall inflation fell but core inflation rose, which led to changes in the Fed's expectations of rate cuts. This shows the complexity of the US economy, and the stickiness of core inflation may make the Fed more cautious in monetary policy.
Comparison of global economic situation: The article mentioned that the Chinese economy is facing downward pressure, which is more severe than the US situation, especially in the stock and real estate markets. This comparison of the economic conditions of the world's two largest economies highlights the instability of the current global economic environment. In this environment, the trend of Bitcoin is affected by many factors, such as changes in global liquidity levels.
Bitcoin market performance
Price trend and related markets: Bitcoin price trend is positively correlated with the Nasdaq index, but is out of touch with gold performance. This shows that the market characteristics of Bitcoin are relatively complex, and its reactions in different market environments are not the same. At the same time, Bitcoin is in an unstable state in the current market environment, and has tried to break through the price range many times but failed.
Holder behavior and market sentiment: Short-term Bitcoin holders' net positions have declined, and large-scale chip exchanges have occurred between them and long-term holders, which reflects the structural adjustment of the market. The Fear and Greed Index shows that market sentiment is similar to the level when FTX crashed, and the funding rate turned negative, which all indicate that market sentiment is bearish, but this may also indicate a turning point in the market trend.
Investment Trends
ETF Development and Institutional Participation: There has been an outflow of funds in the Bitcoin spot ETF market, but there are also different views that it is attracting wealth advisors very quickly. Institutional investors not only participate in ETFs in Bitcoin investment, but also directly purchase Bitcoin, which shows the diversified way institutions invest in Bitcoin. Some companies choose to increase their Bitcoin holdings based on global economic pressures and their own strategies, such as Japanese companies responding to changes in their own economic environment.
