What stage is the market at?
Is the market bullish or bearish? Can I still buy the dip?
The market has fallen into panic, is the bull market still there?
In order to better analyze the current trend, Biteye compiled 7 Bitcoin dip indicators.
Help you judge market sentiment and currency price fluctuations from multiple angles! Forward and collect, learn slowly!
Source: Biteye
1. Ahr999 Index
Current value: 0.6, in the fixed investment range
Interpretation: The indicator implies the return rate of Bitcoin's short-term fixed investment and the deviation of Bitcoin price from expected valuation.
0.45 bottom line, 1.2 fixed investment line
When AHR999 index < 0.45, the indicator will suggest buying the bottom
When the AHR999 index is between 0.45-1.2, the indicator will recommend buying fixed investment
When the AHR999 index is >1.2, the currency price is already relatively high and is not suitable for operation.
Trend review: The index has been oscillating around 1.2 since mid-April, and has completely fallen below 1.2 since June, entering the fixed investment range. In the past three months, it has been approaching the bottom line of 0.45.
2. Rainbow Chart Indicator (Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart)
Current value: It is in the colder range of the market and is suitable for buying.
Interpretation: Use the logarithmic growth curve to predict the potential future price direction of Bitcoin. There are 10 color bands in total. The warmer colors at the top indicate that the market is overheated and are a better selling point; the cooler colors indicate that the market sentiment is depressed and are a better buying point.
Trend review: Since the beginning of this year, the price of Bitcoin has basically been in a cooler color range. The market has not yet become overheated, and the recent price is suitable for buying.
3. Relative Strength Index
Current value: 58.41, not yet reaching the bottom buying range
Interpretation: The RSI indicator determines whether the recent trend is bullish or bearish by calculating price changes over a period of time. Scores are assessed relative to the previous 12 months.
A high RSI means price action is very positive relative to the previous 12 months
A low RSI means price movements have been very negative relative to the previous 12 months
RSI >70: Bitcoin is overbought, may fall soon, can be sold
RSI< 30: Bitcoin is oversold, may reverse upward, and can buy the bottom
Trend review: Judging from historical prices, the RSI indicator is not yet below 30. When referring to this indicator, it can be judged according to the closer it is to 30, the more oversold it is, or the closer it is to 70, the more overbought it is.
4. Two-Year MA Multiplier indicator (2-Year MA Multiplier)
Current Value: Bitcoin $57,604, price neutral
Two-Year Moving Average (2YMA): 38,018
Two-year moving average times five (2YMA x5): 190,092
Interpretation:
The 2 Year Moving Average (green line), and the 5x product of that moving average (red line), are used to highlight the periods during which buying and selling Bitcoin yields huge returns.
Price < 2YMA (green line): Price is at all-time lows, buy the dip
Price > 2YMA x5 (red line): Price is at a historical high, sell at the top
If the price is between the moving averages, it is in a neutral position
Trend review: It is currently in the neutral range, and it is not yet time to completely buy the bottom. From May 2022 to October 2023, the indicator was in the bottom buying range.
5. Unrealized net profit/loss indicator (Net-Unrealized-Profit-Loss)
Current value: 45.33%, not the best buying range
Interpretation: Assess market sentiment by calculating the unrealized profits or losses of all investors holding Bitcoin.
NUPL < 0: Extreme fear of market losses, buy at the bottom
NUPL 0-0.25: Micro profit area, also suitable for buying
NUPL 0.25-0.5: Bull-bear transition, slowly entering the bull market
NUPL 0.5-0.75: Bull market sentiment is strong
NUPL 0.75-1: Extremely greedy, considering escaping from the top
That is, the further NUPL deviates from 0, the closer the market trend is to a bottom or top.
Trend review: Since January 23, the market has left the loss range and gradually made profits. From February to July this year, the RSI was heavy at 0.5, indicating strong bull market sentiment. However, in the past two months, the RSI has fallen to the 0.25-0.5 range, and market sentiment has also fallen.
6. Realized HODL Ratio
Current value: 2,689.22, neutral range
Interpretation: Assess market activity and speculation by comparing the number of Bitcoins in different holding periods, such as the number of UTXO (unspent transaction outputs) in the short term (within 1 month) and the long term (more than 1 year). A higher value means there are more short-term holders and the market is more speculative; a lower value means a higher proportion of long-term holders and the market is more stable.
When approaching the red zone, the market is overheated and it is appropriate to take profits
When approaching the green area, the currency price is cooler and it is suitable to buy at the bottom.
Trend Review: Since Jan '23, the RHODL Ratio has gradually moved out of the green zone and trended upward. The past few months have been in a volatile downward trend, reflecting that the market has subsided but has not yet completely entered a cooling phase.
7. MVRV indicator (Market Value to Realized Value Ratio)
Current value: 1.83, the market has not entered the bottom range
Interpretation: MVRV is a relative indicator, which is the ratio of the circulating market capitalization (Market Cap, MV) and the realized market capitalization (Realized Cap, RV), that is, the ratio of the total market capitalization of Bitcoin/the market capitalization calculated from the last active price of Bitcoin. , representing the profits of Bitcoin holders.
MVRV > 3.5, the market has reached the top, holders will make larger profits and will tend to sell.
MVRV < 1, the market has reached the bottom, most holders are at a loss, their willingness to hold is greater than their willingness to sell, and the probability of price appreciation increases.
Trend review: In the past three or four months, this indicator has been in a downward trend, and the profits of holders have gradually decreased. The closer it is to the bottom range, the easier it is for the market to rebound and rise.
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions contained in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.
This article is reproduced with permission from: "Deep Wave TechFlow"
Original author: Biteye core contributor Viee
