Bitcoin (BTC) price experienced a 2.2% correction on September 11 after the release of US inflation data, but quickly regained $57,000 within hours.

The move coincided with the S&P 500, as the US stock market fell 1.6% on the same day as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded its lowest growth in more than three years.

Bitcoin Overcomes CPI Volatility, But Investors Remain Skeptical About Growth Momentum

Although Bitcoin has weathered the CPI-driven volatility, traders remain skeptical that BTC can surpass the $58,000 resistance level, due to the growing demand for short positions via Bitcoin futures.

Bitcoin/USD (blue) vs. S&P 500 futures (purple) | Source: TradingView

The price action over the past three days has shown a strong correlation between Bitcoin and the US stock market, especially during key moments such as macroeconomic data releases or upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) decisions.

Investors had been expecting lower-than-expected inflation on September 11 to prompt the Fed to cut interest rates more aggressively. The core US CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year in August, but when excluding food and fuel prices, the increase was 3.2%.

On the trading side, the data dampened expectations of a 0.50% rate cut on September 18, leading to an initial negative reaction from the stock market. Views on the impact of persistent inflation on Bitcoin prices remain mixed, especially given the cost of financing US debt.

Interest payments are expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2025, according to projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). So if the Fed keeps interest rates high for longer, the pressure on government spending will increase. In the long run, this inflationary trend could benefit Bitcoin, although its latest failure to break above $58,000 on September 10 has dampened investor confidence.

However, it is not enough to explain Bitcoin's weakness based on macroeconomic data alone, especially when the last close above $60,000 was on August 27. Some analysts cite outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs as the main cause, while others point to regulatory uncertainty affecting cryptocurrency exchanges and services.

Demand for leveraged long positions is weakening, reflecting lack of confidence

On the trading side, the demand for leverage through Bitcoin futures is an important indicator of investor risk appetite. Funding rates on perpetual contracts turn positive when the market is bullish. Interest rates between 0.2% and 1.2% per month typically indicate neutral market conditions, while rates below this threshold are considered bearish.

Bitcoin futures 8-hour funding rate | Source: Laevitas

Data shows that Bitcoin funding rates have been largely negative since September 7, when BTC fell to $52,600 after $311 million worth of leveraged long positions were liquidated in two days. However, the cost of opening short positions remains below 0.6% per month, suggesting that even bears are not entirely confident.

Bitcoin's funding rate is the fee charged by traders who go long (buy) and short (sell) on a perpetual futures contract, which helps keep the futures contract price close to the spot market price. When the funding rate is positive, buyers pay a fee to sellers because the contract price is higher than the spot price. Conversely, when the funding rate is negative, sellers pay a fee to buyers because the contract price is lower than the spot price.

2-Month Bitcoin Options Spread 25% at Deribit | Source: Laevitas

To assess whether this sentiment is limited to perpetual contracts, we need to look at the Bitcoin options market. Bitcoin’s 25% delta skew is currently at 4%, indicating that put options are trading at a slight premium. More importantly, this skew has remained stable over the past week, even as Bitcoin retested the $53,000 support on September 7. Therefore, it cannot be concluded that the bearish sentiment is solely due to negative funding rates on perpetual contracts.

While it is difficult to predict whether the lack of demand for leveraged long positions will strengthen the $58,000 resistance level in the short term, Bitcoin’s ability to advance to $60,000 will depend largely on how the stock market reacts to Bitcoin’s recent price movements.

Source: https://tapchibitcoin.io/lieu-funding-rate-am-cua-bitcoin-co-cho-thay-phe-gau-dang-hoan-toan-kiem-soat.html