The recent trend of the price of TON, the crypto of Telegram, has been disappointing.
Now, however, positive forecasts are circulating again.
The drop in the price of the crypto TON after the news of the arrest of the CEO of Telegram
The price of TON reached its all-time high this year, in June, when it surpassed $8.2 for the first time.
Since then, however, the price has dropped, particularly with two major declines followed by small rebounds.
To tell the truth, already in July it had dropped well below $7, but that was a decline that had spread over the course of a month, and that had simply brought the price back to the levels prior to the small boom in June.
Subsequently, however, that level no longer held, so much so that at the beginning of August it suddenly dropped to $5.3, which is a level in line with the previous peak in March.
After a rebound up to $6.9, in September the price of TON dropped again, with the spread of the news of the arrest of the founder and CEO of Telegram, Pavel Durov, down to $4.6.
However, in this case, it was a level not much lower than the minimum peaks of April and May, and it was followed by a new small rebound up to the current $5.2.
It should be remembered that 2024 had started below 2.4$, and that since the end of March it has never dropped below 4.5$, for now.
The price correction of TON
Therefore, the last three months have not been a true collapse, but more of a correction after the spring rally.
From the end of February to mid-April, it had recorded a sensational +250% in just over a month, which had taken it from $2 to over $7, and an additional phase of recovery lasted until mid-June.
After a rally of such proportions, and so fast, a correction was to be expected, if not even a retracement.
Given that the rally started less than seven months ago from the 2$ mark, it is difficult to consider this drop a true retracement, since the current price is still well above 5$. It seems more like a temporary and inevitable correction after a sensational rally that probably pushed it well beyond the limits of sustainability, in the medium/short term.
The forecasts on the price of Toncoin (TON): new rise coming for Telegram’s crypto?
At this point, it should not be too surprising that new bull forecasts on the price of TON have started to circulate.
Durov has been released, and he has promised that he will resolve the issues that are being contested regarding the management of Telegram.
It should be remembered that although technically TON is a decentralized blockchain, the great success of Toncoin is almost exclusively due to Telegram, and in particular to its marketing and propaganda activities in its favor, and the adoption of this crypto within the ecosystem of the famous messaging app.
Telegram is growing a lot, and it is basing value transactions within it precisely on TON. Furthermore, it is heavily advertising both the crypto itself and the mini-apps that use it, and in such a context, with more than 900 million active users monthly, it is more than logical that positive forecasts are circulating.
The shared optimism
It should be remembered, however, that it is by no means certain that such optimistic forecasts will definitely be met.
On the other hand, even in recent months, optimistic forecasts about the price of TON have continued to circulate, although they were mainly focused on the medium/long term and not on the short term.
The difference lies in the fact that now optimistic forecasts are starting to circulate even for the short term.
The hypothesis that emerges from some analyses is that, although the short-term sentiment continues to be substantially bearish, if it manages to climb above $5.5 and stay there, the next step could be to climb above $6.1 as well.
A potential rise up to this level would only mean an 8% gain compared to the current value, and a return to the values of early August before the sharp drop.
This is therefore an optimistic hypothesis, but not very much, which would simply allow TON to cancel the losses in the last month and a half.
Moreover, in the event that the support placed around $4.9 does not hold, the decline could continue.
Autumn is coming: here’s what to expect
An additional element that can be particularly interesting is the historical data.
In fact, historically autumn has always been a good time for the crypto market in bullish years.
The 2024 for TON, Bitcoin, and other crypto is still in all respects a good year, overall, therefore the autumn could bring positive news.
In particular, the second half of October, and the first of November, have often been good times for the rise in cryptocurrency prices, and this could happen again this year, coinciding with the presidential elections in the USA.
For this reason, the forecasts regarding the price of TON tend to be positive even in the medium term, especially if the short-term ones mentioned above also turn out to be correct.
Currently, the situation in the crypto markets seems quite stagnant, also because September has often proven to be a moment of waiting in the past. Summer, on the other hand, has in several cases turned out to be difficult for the crypto markets, but since it is about to come to an end, one can really expect some kind of turning point in a few weeks.
