At 9:00 a.m. Beijing time, Trump and Harris held their first presidential debate as scheduled. Neither of them mentioned cryptocurrencies, and they mainly talked about traditional topics such as foreign policy and immigration. According to data from Polymarket, as the debate progressed, the balance of victory slowly shifted to Harris, and the market reaction also highlighted traders' attention to the election results. Although cryptocurrencies were not mentioned directly, the expectation of Trump's declining chance of winning was undoubtedly transmitted to the price of digital currencies. The political uncertainty brought about by the draw made traders more cautious, and short-term negative risk aversion reappeared, causing BTC to fall -1.6% in an hour and then tested the $56,000 support.

Source: Polymarket

After the debate, the price completed the correction from the high point and consolidated around 56500. The actual intraday volatility of BTC is about 43%, which is much lower than the pricing of the options market yesterday. The implied volatility curve has also been significantly revised down on this basis, and the front end still prices a 60% fluctuation for tonight's CPI data.

Source: SignalPlus

Source: Deribit (as of 11 SEP 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

On the other hand, the change of Vol Skew reflects the recent ups and downs of market sentiment. Yesterday, the performance of BTC spot ETF ending negative inflow was regarded by investors as a shift in market sentiment. The price challenged 58,000 and led to the return of Vol Skew. Today, although Ethereum's ETF also ended the outflow of funds and BTC continued to inflow, the negative risk aversion caused by political uncertainty still poured cold water on the enthusiasm that had just been ignited in the market. Correspondingly, from the perspective of trading, the price rebound and the return of Vol Skew created cheap buy Put opportunities on BTC, and a lot of put options were bought in various terms, especially at the end of November. On ETH, the flow brought by this market is a large number of sell Calls. The more representative one is that 20 SEP came from multiple custom strategies of bulk, and sold 2350 and 2400 call options at the same time, obtaining high Premium income.

Source: SignalPlus, 25 D RR changes

Source: SignalPlus, transaction data

Source: SignalPlus, ETH block trade data

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