Written by: Shang2046
The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
After 6 months of high-level fluctuations, BTC has been squeezed out and is ready to go, but the US macro-economy has temporarily become the core force that determines the market.
Market Week
This week, BTC opened at $57,301 and closed at $54,867, with an amplitude of 12.6%, and the lowest point fell to $52,000, very close to the lowest point of the new high consolidation zone of $49,000, which fell rapidly a month ago. The gains accumulated in the previous two weeks of rebounding to $65,000 disappeared, and the market has been hovering below the 200-day moving average for a month. The panic index once reached 26, close to the bottom of the bear market.
Although our monthly report points out that in the range of 54,000-73,700, 2.9 million BTC have been newly accumulated in the past 6 months, building a theoretically strong support. Various on-chain data show that we are back to the situation in September last year: the internal market structure of BTC has been sorted out for a long time, just like a pile of firewood squeezed out of excess water, dry firewood and ignited at any time, but there are still clear signs of continued inflow on the capital side. With the capital side in a fragile balance and the US interest rate adjusted to a very sensitive moment, BTC has clearly handed over the pricing power to the US dollar system.
The US non-farm payrolls data released on September 6 is crucial to the upcoming US interest rate policy adjustment in September. The 142,000 new jobs are slightly lower than market expectations. The expectations of mainstream US financial institutions were also divided. In the end, concerns about economic recession and the continued deleveraging of the Japanese yen Carry Trade caused funds in the entire market to flow out of risky assets. BTC was very obviously affected by this in the US ETF. Since the US ETF went online, it has recorded a net outflow for 8 consecutive days for the first time.
After a weekend of digestion, the Nasdaq began to show signs of rebounding, and the market's concerns about the economic recession have also been reduced to a considerable extent. BTC rebounded from 53,000 to around 57,000 US dollars. But we must note that before the clear interest rate cut in September, the market is still in a fragile balance. We firmly believe that the interest rate cut will be beneficial to BTC after the door is opened, but historically, it takes a certain amount of time from various expected Price In to the actual liquidity. We tend to believe that before the US election in November, BTC is expected to get out of the painful consolidation range affected by the US macroeconomic policy and economic uncertainty.
Federal Reserve and economic data
On September 6, the data released by the United States had negative aspects: non-agricultural employment was 142,000, lower than the expected 160,000; positive aspects: the unemployment rate dropped from 4.3% to 4.2%, a new low since June, and the first decline after rising for four consecutive months;
However, the non-farm payrolls in June and July suffered a major revision, with a downward revision of 86,000 in both months.
After the data was released, the U.S. market rose briefly, but soon entered a sustained decline and eventually closed at the lowest point.
The U.S. dollar, U.S. stocks, and gold may be based on concerns about a "hard landing", and stocks, bonds, and currencies have all fallen. At the same time, the U.S. dollar has fallen to the low point of the Carry Trade crash on August 5 against the Japanese yen. The Nasdaq is still about 6% away from the Carry Trade low point.
Stablecoins and ETFs
The two channels recorded a net outflow of nearly US$500 million overall, with the ETF channel experiencing a mainstream outflow of US$706 million (the second largest week in history), and outflows have continued for eight consecutive trading days.
Stablecoin recorded a net inflow of 120 million, among which the previously strong USDT turned weaker, with an outflow of 12 million for the whole week, while USDC had an inflow of 158 million.
The SSR index has approached the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since January last year, indicating that the supply of stablecoins has been seriously underestimated relative to the BTC price and there is a large demand for a rebound.
Supply Analysis
In the price range above $54,000, the total accumulated BTC chips are 5.985 million, and 30.31% are in a loss state. The loss ratio is lower than 41% in September last year.
Long-term investors' positions continued to mature, increasing by 40,000 coins, while short-term positions decreased by 45,000 coins. The 7-day average of long and short selling volume showed a downward trend, and the selling pressure was not large.
The destocking trend of centralized exchanges was interrupted, and the accumulation increased by 5,000 coins. The decline in purchasing power corresponds to the slowdown in the inflow of stablecoins and the outflow of ETFs.
BTC on-chain data
BTC’s new addresses and active addresses are both hovering at low levels, but have not dropped significantly, and are generally stable;
The number of new addresses and active addresses in Ethereum Eco declined significantly, but the total number of Transacitons remained high.
Solana’s new addresses dropped slightly, active addresses hit a new high, and total Transacitons remained high. "
Cycle Indicators
The EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0, and the bullish signal is temporarily dormant.
EMC Labs was founded by crypto asset investors and data scientists in April 2023. It focuses on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investment, with industry foresight, insight and data mining as its core competitiveness, and is committed to participating in the booming blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets to bring welfare to mankind.
For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund
