#美国经济软着陆？

The Fed’s rate cut is almost certain, but the market continues to fall. There may be several reasons behind this:

The latest non-farm payrolls data fell short of expectations, and the data for June and July were also revised down by more than 80,000, and the small non-farm data was also quite weak. Therefore, based on these economic data, the Fed is likely to choose to cut interest rates. The current focus of the debate is whether to cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. Data shows that the probability of a 50 basis point cut is close to 50%.

In terms of the extent of the rate cut, the Fed faces a dilemma. If the economy shows no signs of recession and is only intended to prevent a recession, then a 25 basis point rate cut is reasonable. However, if the economy has already entered a recession, the rate cut is not large enough, which may lead to further deterioration of the economy and make it impossible to intervene effectively in time.

On the other hand, a 50 basis point rate cut is equivalent to admitting that the economy is already in recession, which may trigger negative emotions, such as deteriorating stock market expectations, leading to a continued decline in US stocks, which will further hit the economy. Therefore, the market is currently in a wait-and-see state, waiting for the Fed’s policy direction to be clarified.

At the same time, market sentiment is highly correlated with the trend of US stocks. When US stocks rise, it has little impact, but once they fall, the market will inevitably follow. Therefore, the current strategy is not to rush to "buy the bottom" first, but to continue to observe the policy direction and market performance.

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