According to Bernstein analysts, who labeled Bitcoin as a "Trump trade" in a note to clients on Monday, the upcoming U.S. election could significantly impact Bitcoin's future. Bernstein argues that the difference in election outcomes could profoundly influence the cryptocurrency industry.
The firm highlights that while both presidential campaigns have engaged with crypto leaders, the Trump campaign's explicit pro-crypto stance appears more favorable for Bitcoin's growth. Trump has actively promoted making the U.S. "the Bitcoin and Crypto Capital of the world," as seen in his speeches at events like the Bitcoin Nashville conference.
Bernstein outlines Trump's policy promises, which include appointing a crypto-friendly SEC chair and establishing a national strategic Bitcoin stockpile. Specifically, Trump's speech at Bitcoin Nashville included plans for the U.S. to become a Bitcoin mining powerhouse, the appointment of a crypto-friendly SEC chair on Day 1, the creation of a national Bitcoin stockpile, and the formation of a Crypto advisory council to the President.
In contrast, Bernstein notes that the Harris campaign has not addressed crypto in her policy statements or speeches. "Crypto has not been mentioned in any of Harris's speeches or recent policy statements," they state.
The analysts predict that Bitcoin could reach new highs if Trump wins, with a price range of $80K to $90K by Q4. Conversely, under a Harris victory, they foresee a potential decline, with Bitcoin possibly testing the $30K to $40K range due to continued regulatory challenges. Bernstein highlights Bitcoin's resilience, having risen 112% over the past year despite various challenges.
They believe that a Trump win could provide a more favorable regulatory environment, potentially boosting innovation and institutional participation in the crypto space. Conversely, a Harris win may prolong uncertainty and keep Bitcoin under pressure. This election, therefore, could be pivotal for Bitcoin's future trajectory.
