It was mentioned before that the Japanese stock market monopoly on August 5 was due to the non-agricultural employment data that was lower than expected, the yen interest rate hike, and the Fed interest rate cut. In fact, last week, the Bank of Japan revealed a signal that it might raise interest rates, but the specific time and base are unknown, but this interest rate hike signal is a bit of a thorn in the side.

So will the black swan of August 5 continue on Monday? It depends on the Nikkei index.

The Nikkei index closed before the release of the non-agricultural data on Friday. Specifically, we have to see how the Japanese stock market performs after the opening of the Japanese stock market on Monday at 8 o'clock in the east. I expect that if the Japanese stock market falls, it will not be a violent circuit breaker like on August 5. If it falls, it will also affect the opening of the US stock market at 9:30 pm, which will further lead to the decline of Bitcoin.

I think that if the non-agricultural data is unfavorable and the market is uncertain, Japanese stocks and arbitrage traders are very likely to conduct large-scale concentrated liquidation on Monday. At that time, both the Topix Index and the Nikkei Index may face a small decline, which will affect market confidence and retail trading willingness, leading to a decline in US stocks, and of course, will further affect the price of Bitcoin.