🔶 BREAKING: Prediction markets now pricing in a 23% chance of a 50 bps rate cut this month 🔶

➡️ This is down 13 percentage points since this morning's jobs report, according to @Kalshi.

➡️ As we've said for weeks: 50 bps rate cuts and emergency cuts are NOT necessary.

🟠 Labor Market Cracking 🟠

➡️ While the labor market is weakening, the Fed should avoid moving too quickly again.

➡️ Inflation is around 3%, but the labor market's fragility adds complexity to the Fed’s decision.

🟠 The Fed's Dilemma 🟠

➡️ The Fed must choose: either let the labor market weaken further or risk inflation rebounding.

➡️ A steady 25 bps rate cut is the best strategy for the current economic environment.