Ikkiu talks about the macro factors (data) that affect the fundamentals of the market. Originality is not easy, so please indicate the source when reprinting.
The market releases various economic data every day, and many friends are confused and don’t know which ones to pay attention to. Then this article will be very useful to you.
Crypto is most affected by the United States, so this article only focuses on U.S. factors. European and Japanese economic data are also important, but they are not discussed in this article.
Important economic data in the United States usually comes from two departments: the Department of Labor and the Federal Reserve. CPI data and employment data are both released by the Department of Labor, and these data have a great impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate data.
Fed:
The most watched is the Federal Reserve interest rate decision (FOMC meeting), which is generally held eight times a year and is usually released at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday. It is used to regulate economic development and control inflation, including benchmark interest rates, reserve ratios, etc.
Interest rate data: rate hikes are bad news; rate cuts are good news for the market. This is common sense.
Speech by the Fed Chairman: Has a greater impact on the market than the announcement of interest rates. On average, once a month, including but not limited to: press conferences after FOMC meetings (8 times) + congressional hearings (2 times) + others (academic conferences, economic seminars, etc.)
Meeting minutes: released 3 weeks after each interest rate decision, 8 times a year
There will be three more interest rate decisions in 2024, at 0919, 1108, and 1219. The main theme of these three decisions is interest rate cuts, and the market focuses on whether the rate cut will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points (BP) each time.
Department of Labor:
The most popular ones are the non-farm data released at the beginning of the month and the CPI data released in the middle of the month. Both data are released once a month. The non-farm data is usually released on the first Friday of each month, and the CPI data is usually released in the third week of each month. The specific time is 20:30 (summer time, April-October) or 21:30 (winter time: November-March) Beijing time.
Non-agricultural and employment data: including non-agricultural employment, employment rate and unemployment rate. It is an important indicator of economic conditions. Employment data that is better than expected will help the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates (drive interest rates up), which is bearish.
CPI data: an important indicator reflecting inflation. If CPI is higher than expected, interest rate hike is bearish; if inflation is lower than expected, it is bullish.
Finally, all the macro data released in the market are shrouded in mystery, and ultimately it all comes down to the core issue of interest rate hikes/lowers. An interest rate hike is bad news, while an interest rate cut is good news.
Attachment:
Federal Reserve Rate Monitor: https://cn.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor
US unemployment rate: https://cn.investing.com/economic-calendar/unemployment-rate-300
美国CPI：https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733
