🔥Today's employment data will determine whether the FED will cut by 25 or 50bsp

🔶The employment report released in a few hours will have a big impact on the US Federal Reserve's policy. Wall Street seems to be in agreement with the beautiful scenario for the August NFP with the following expectations:

+New jobs: 161-166K

+Wage growth: 0.3% (m/m) and +3.6% (y/y)

+Unemployment rate 4.2%

🔶The market is expecting a continued weak labor market. If the unemployment rate falls below 4.2%, the confidence of the FED cutting interest rates will dissipate -> DXY will increase again and we will see a fiery red session of US stocks and crypto markets. Basically because of the Sahm Rule - which the market has recently used as a measure linked to the unemployment rate. 🔶The JOLTS data a few days ago could be an early indicator of NFP, but I have not believed much in NFP numbers for more than half a year now (because the revised data is always too different), it is not excluded that today's NFP will also be good because it is revised. 🔶The market is likely to be disappointed after the NFP data (because the labor market is stronger than expected), and the FED has another reason to only cut 25 instead of 50bsp. 🔶$BTC will probably continue to fall after the news, but let's see if there are any surprises. I don't want to be pessimistic, but I don't want to be optimistic.