Markets focused on two data from the USA: What are the expectations?

US and world markets are waiting for the two most important data of the year.Non-agricultural employment and unemployment data for August in America will be announced. These two data also closely concern the Fed's interest rate decision on September 18.

Author Hakan Ateşler

Non-agricultural employment and unemployment data for the month of August, which will directly affect the Fed's interest rate decision on September 18 in the USA, Expectations are that around 161 thousand people joined employment last month and the annual unemployment rate decreased to 4.2% (from 4.3%)...

What happens if it is much lower?

As it is known, the Fed has been implementing a policy of monetary tightening and keeping interest rates high for about two years. However, the fact that many of the data was lower than expected in the recent period has triggered fears of recessions for the USA. If the employment figure is lower than expected today, the probability of the Fed going to a 50 basis point cut on September 18 may increase.

July was surprised

As it will be remembered, the employment figure, which was expected to be 185 thousand in July, was 114 thousand, and the fears of recessions in the USA were formed for the first time in this period. Unemployment was also announced as 4.3% above expectations. This rate was also the highest unemployment rate since October 2021.