Hello everyone, I am your cat brother. I scared myself for half the night last night, then I thought, f**k it, I will deal with it as soon as it comes, I am a person with 27,000 liquidation, what should I worry about, I just lie down and sleep. When I woke up, I saw some good news.

I think this news can boost the confidence of bulls, so I put it at the top. This is not a rumor I made up, it is official news from Binance.

This news did not mention whether to consider a rate cut, but only considered the base rate of the rate cut. For the current weak market, no matter how many base rates the rate cut starts from, as long as there is an expectation of a rate cut, the market will have a narrative and a point of speculation. And that is enough. For the time being, we will not consider the issue of OTC funds entering the market after the rate cut. That is a very distant and long thing, and we only need to anticipate it. Remember to get out of the long position before the date of the rate cut. If you can't get out, it will really break your legs.

Well, I need to insert a message. With everyone's joint efforts and support, I got a "cup". Thank you very much for your support. As a grassroots leek, I didn't expect to win this honor. This is something I dare not even think about. In the future, I will continue to share what I know and help everyone continue to make various small tools, plug-ins and indicators, etc. I hope that we can all be financially free this time.

So let's continue to look at today's situation, or start from $BTC

Currently, it is still in the descending box. We need to get a support higher than 560 to initially confirm the stop-loss signal. Today is the 6th. As long as the expectation of interest rate cut is still there, we will get out of this period of decline in the near future. At this time, if you continue to short, it is not as cost-effective as squatting at a low point and starting to prepare for long.

Last night, the market fell to the previous low, which probably scared many friends. At the daily level, we need to observe the breakthrough of 573-576. If it fails to break through, it will continue to step back to 560 to see if it can get a support at 565 (it is a bit difficult to see now). 593 has become a big mountain, so let's not consider 593 first. The price of the middle track at the 4-hour level has dropped to 583, overlapping with the previous 585. The suppression here will be stronger than before. Below 560 are 550 and 540. Looking down from now, we can only see this in early September, with the limit value of about 540. If we continue to be bearish at this time, the cost performance is lower than deploying long orders on dips, and then waiting for the expectation of interest rate cuts to rise. It is also a kind of wisdom not to eat the tail of the fish. There is no need to go short to the limit, especially if your short order is entered below the halfway point of the mountain.

Deploy long orders on dips, which does not mean you should open long orders at the current price. If you really can't wait and have no patience, you should enter the long position at the price near 560, and stop loss at 544. If you want to be prudent, wait patiently for 2 new supports to appear, and then enter near the new support level, or continue to wait for the pin. If it doesn't fall before the 8th, the probability of falling after the 8th will be much smaller. If it hasn't fallen on the 10th, then it's basically like this. It is unlikely to fall all the way to mid-September, and then start to speculate on expectations, and end with a few big positive lines in 2~3 days. That would be too sloppy.

Next look at $ETH

The original support level of 2414 is now acting as resistance. If it cannot be broken, it will continue to draw a gate. Pay attention to the support of 2330-2340-2350. At this time, if you continue to open short positions, you can only short with a stop loss. If you get a profit, you will leave. If you don’t leave and the market rebounds, the profit will be greatly withdrawn. Chasing shorts and chasing longs are both irrational. Especially when a market is about to end.

From the daily chart, the current state of Ethereum is not a market crash, but a result of sluggish trading volume. This kind of decline without rebounding is the most fatal. There is a feeling of bottomlessness, but the market will start to speculate on the expectation of interest rate cuts in the middle of the month, so if we calculate the time, the current market will end within 2 to 4 days. Even if the daily line is still falling, there will be a daily level rebound.

Next watch $SOL

Sol's line has not been changed since it was drawn several days ago. He has not been able to get out of this box and has been oscillating back and forth. I don't do short-term trading. If I do, I have already eaten 4 waves. It doesn't need to be absolutely accurate. It's okay to eat within this range, right? Here is a reference value for "bottom-picking", which is the accelerated decline after breaking through 129, which has dropped the price to around the previous low of July 5. You can use 123 as a reference value. If it is inserted near this again, you can try to connect it. Even if it is not the absolute bottom, there is no risk of being trapped in the short term.

At present, it seems that the bottom will be formed at 127. The current resistance level of 135 overlaps with the 4-hour middle line. Under the double pressure, it will be more difficult to break through. It is equivalent to telling you that you can try to go short at the position of 135~136, and a stop loss of 1% upward is enough. 127-135 is also 6%. This section has been eaten up several times, and no one knows how many times it can be eaten. I can only say that no matter you are long or short, you must pay attention to the breakthrough of the corresponding stop profit position. If it breaks through or falls below, then you can take a look at the pattern, otherwise, it is best to lock in the profit.

Looking at the channel pattern on the daily line, we are in a slow decline pattern. The daily track price and the middle track price are both falling slowly. Now there is a very unclear bottom rise on the daily line. We need to close the daily line to confirm whether it is true. The top of the daily level can only be imagined. I don’t think that this speculation expectation can be pulled to such a high position. On the contrary, I feel that the daily middle track price of 146 is more realistic.

Finally, let’s take a look at BNB

The middle track price overlaps with the previous 523 resistance level, and the suppression effect will be superimposed. Here we need to pay attention to the picture of 513~515. If it cannot break through and stand firm, it will continue to slide down. 500 is definitely not the bottom, and there is a reserved position of 470 below. For bottom fishing, you can refer to the previous low price of 7.5-7.8.

500 has been tested 3 times, and there is no decent rebound now. If it is tested again, 500 will most likely fail to hold. If it fails, you can wait and see around 470. If you want to open a short position, wait patiently to see if 523 will hold. There is still a certain risk in going short at 513-515.

Written at the end:

1. I suggest you start to prepare for long orders. I don’t mean to buy long orders at the current market price. Don’t believe everything you hear. Today is the 6th, and there are still ten days before the announcement date. It is normal to make a move and then move upward. If you don’t have enough patience, it is best not to do left-side trading. You can wait patiently for the trend to become clear before chasing long orders. The risk is much smaller.

2. It is not that you cannot short now, but the position must be right. Those resistance levels have been there for several days. Why do you still want to short? Are you really impatient? Friends who open shorts at 560, are you really not afraid of being trapped? Be patient and wait for it to rebound. Is it so difficult to open shorts near the resistance level?

3. The prediction that the falling market will soon end is based on time calculation, not on the current pattern and price. This is just a range value. The best way to confirm it is still the rapid change of price or the conformity of pattern.

4. There is still a high probability that the market will be ended by a big spike after two days of sideways movement, or by a slight rebound and then fluctuations. Therefore, be patient and don't wait for so long. After persisting for so long, you will finally be impulsive and go halfway up the mountain. Although the probability of you being trapped is not high at the current price, there is no need to waste those possible profits.

5. If you only look at the liquidation situation, you can't push it down much using the contract. After breaking through 550, you will need to use the spot market to push it down. You can pay attention to the recent large-scale changes in the spot market.

6. The wait-and-see party will always have the last laugh. Either you miss out on 1~2% and reduce the risk. Or you wait until the end and get at least 1~2% more than others. In this way, you will not suffer any loss. . .

If the expectation of rate cuts is hyped later, it will not be able to save the current decline. From now until early October, it is all decline. The rise in the middle of the month is called a V-reversal, but it is more like a big rebound in the process of daily decline. Don't expect too much, it is better to save this expectation until mid-October.