The market fell below 57,000 again. The interest rate will be cut in September. What will happen next?
Let's take a look at the URPD data of BTC first, as shown below
K-line trend Since the rise on August 8, the market has not fallen below 55,600. It recovered the lost ground last night, but the market opened again today
PMI tonight, unemployment rate tomorrow (previous value 4.3, expected 4.2, less than 4.3 is the best, which boosts sentiment and increases the expectation of a rate cut of 25% this month. Currently, the rate cut of 25% in September is 55%, source CME), non-agricultural, and then the election debate on September 10, let's see what Harris and Trump said about encryption, and Harris's proposition. Can it boost sentiment for #BTC, and then there is the CPI data next week, the interest rate meeting on September 19 in the early morning. The above various influences on market sentiment are mixed in between.
In the past week, the K-line has not broken through 59,900 and stabilized. Instead, it has begun to test 55,600. It is also obvious from the urpd data. The upward trend is 58,500, 59,200, 59,900, 60,700, and the downward trend is 55,600. If 55,600 is broken, the next support will be 51,900. Therefore, the data and events mentioned above, if the negative news is a little bigger, and the liquidity is low, it will break 55,600. If the sentiment can be boosted, then it will fluctuate in the range of 55,600-59,900 to 61,000 at most.
It is still the same as mentioned before. The interest rate cut in September has been confirmed, it is nothing more than 25 or 50. The probability of 25 is still high. Although it is not 63.5%, it is still more than 50%. The more it gets to this time, especially with the macroeconomic issues in Japan (expectations of Japan's interest rate hike), the market sentiment will jump back and forth, making it difficult to grasp. There is no strong market sense. Still need to pay attention to the risks.
As for the altcoins. BTC fell slightly before, and the altcoins fell sharply. Based on the rebound of BTC, the altcoins should stop when they are ahead, and don’t be too greedy (5-10 points is enough). For a real reversal, we should still pay attention to the situation after the interest rate cut is implemented.
