According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 55.0%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 45.0%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 32.1%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 49.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 100 basis points is 18.8%.
ps: If the interest rate is cut by 50 basis points on September 18, it may be the end time of short selling this month. Before that, it is necessary to quickly step back to form a bottom. In this way, the pressure of the next interest rate cut will be given to November. In November, it is basically certain that the interest rate will only be cut by 25 basis points. The US election is in this month. If Trump loses the election, there may be a sharp drop in the short term. This is a potential risk#
