An analysis from Goldman Sachs on the predicted impact of the US political elections on economic growth over the next two years.
Here are some key points:
Economic Growth Forecast: Goldman Sachs predicts that if the Democratic Party, led by Kamala Harris, wins the presidential and congressional elections in November, US economic growth will receive the biggest boost. Conversely, if the Republican Party wins, or if the government is divided under Donald Trump, the economy will be negatively affected.
Impact of Immigration and Tax Policy: Research shows that under a Republican government, higher taxes and strict immigration policies would lead to an economic contraction, specifically a 0.5% decline in the second half of 2025. In contrast, a Democratic government would introduce new spending policies and expand middle-class tax credits, which would help offset some of the investment decline caused by higher corporate taxes.
Job Growth: Job creation opportunities would be higher under a Democratic government than a Republican government, with Goldman estimating that a Harris administration would see job growth about 10,000 to 30,000 jobs per month higher than under Republican-led scenarios.
Impact on Inflation: A Trump victory, especially if accompanied by a China-hawkish vice president like JD Vance, could lead to increased import tariffs on cars from China, Mexico and the European Union, which would increase core inflation.
Context & Market Situation: The race between Harris and Trump is very tight, with fierce competition in the decisive states. This could affect market sentiment and economic expectations in the short term.
Overall, this analysis highlights the importance of the election results to US economic growth, as well as how tax and immigration policies could impact the economy in the future under the new president.
But this could be a further deepening of his belief that Democrat Harris will take the presidency this November.
This also affects more or less the world finance as well as the current Crypto market.
Who do you think will win the White House in the 2024 election?
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