Golden Finance reported that Jasper De Maere, a researcher at Outlier Ventures, said in an article that the 2024 halving is the fifth period of Bitcoin halving, and the BTC price has performed the worst within 125 days after the halving. The price fell 8% compared to the day of the halving, while the average increase in previous periods was 22%. We believe that the 2016 halving was the last time that the halving had a major fundamental impact on the price trend of BTC. Since then, the size of the BTC block reward for miners has become insignificant in the context of an increasingly mature and diversified crypto market. The strong performance of BTC and the cryptocurrency market after the 2020 halving is purely coincidental, because the 2020 halving occurred during an unprecedented period of global capital injection after the COVID-19 pandemic, with the money supply (M2) in the United States alone increasing by 25.3% that year. Some people believe that the halving-driven 4-year cycle still holds true in 2024, but the approval of the BTCETF in January 2024 drove demand in advance, leading to a strong rise in BTC before the halving. This statement is wrong. BTCETF approval is a demand-driven catalyst, while halving is a supply-driven catalyst, so they are not mutually exclusive. In the 125 days after the halving, the 5th cycle (2024) is the worst performing period since the halving, and it is also the only cycle with a drop in BTC price compared to the day of the halving.
