[Outlier Ventures: BTC's strong performance after the 2020 halving is purely coincidental, and the four-year cycle driven by Bitcoin halving is no longer valid] Golden Finance reported that Jasper De Maere, a researcher at Outlier Ventures, wrote that the 2024 halving is the fifth period of Bitcoin halving, and BTC prices performed the worst within 125 days after the halving. The price fell by -8% compared to the day of the halving, while the average increase in previous periods was +22%. We believe that the 2016 halving was the last time that the halving had a major fundamental impact on BTC price trends. Since then, the size of BTC block rewards for miners has become insignificant in the context of an increasingly mature and diversified crypto market. The strong performance of BTC and the cryptocurrency market after the 2020 halving is purely coincidental, because the 2020 halving occurred during an unprecedented period of global capital injection after the COVID-19 pandemic, with the U.S. money supply (M2) alone increasing by 25.3% that year. Some people believe that the 4-year cycle driven by the halving still holds true in 2024, but the approval of the BTC ETF in January 2024 pulls demand ahead of time, causing BTC to rise strongly before the halving. This statement is wrong. The BTC ETF approval is a demand-driven catalyst, while the halving is a supply-driven catalyst, so they are not mutually exclusive. In the 125 days after the halving, the 5th cycle (2024) is the worst performing period since the halving, and it is also the only cycle in which the BTC price fell compared to the day of the halving.