Bitcoin closed a monthly candle in a bad position, down 25% and closed down 8.7%. Along with breaking the support level on the monthly timeframe. There is a high probability that the price will continue to fall. The next support level is 45,000$BTC on the M timeframe.
Really if this happens it will be like a cataclysmic event that wipes out the market again, altcoins will most likely split 2-3 times from current prices, and the market will need a long time to recover. I don't want this to happen.
Personally I expect the price to drop to around 50k and then recover.
The market capitalization has lost $2 billion. Since Bitcoin accounts for more than 55% of the total market capitalization, the monthly candle closing of TOTAL is also very bad. It can also be understood that the money flow in the market has also been lost a lot.
On the weekly chart, the Crypto market capitalization just closed the weekly candle at $1.960 billion, the lowest weekly candle closing level since March. The red candle of the last week of August negated the entire recovery momentum of the previous two weeks, helping to forecast negative fluctuations for the first half of September.
During the day, the market capitalization showed a positive reaction at the $2,000 billion area. Since May, although the capitalization has fallen below this level many times, it has quickly "recovered" or recovered to above $2,000 billion. For most of August, the capitalization also remained above $2,000 billion and recovered many times from here.
It is predicted that the $2 trillion area could be the balance zone for bulls and bears in the market. The balance zone is the capitalization area that shows equal expectations from both sellers and buyers. It is predicted that when it falls below $2 trillion, the capitalization will recover, and when it exceeds $2 trillion, the capitalization will correct again.
This volatility reflects the neutrality and wait-and-see attitude of investors staying out of the market.
Volume is weak, looking at the movement between market volume in relation to capitalization will help determine whether buying momentum has returned. Perhaps, the answer is still no.
TheBlock data shows that the trading volume on CEXs in August reached 1.2 trillion USD, up from 1.1 trillion USD in July. Although the volume increased slightly, the capitalization continued to decrease, showing that the majority of this volume was controlled by the bears. $BNB
For the market to recover, there needs to be a month with a surge in volume exceeding $1.5 trillion or $2 trillion. Parallel to this surge in volume, Altcoin prices need to slow down the decline or bounce back for the first time after many consecutive months of decline. However, such a sign has not appeared since March.
My personal expectation is that the market will not fall too much this September, BTC will stay above $50,000. Altcoins will start to recover from September 20 onwards.
Some altcoins to watch when bitcoin rebounds are SUI, SEI, PEPE, AVAX, AAVE, FET, OM.... $FET
All analysis is for informational purposes only, for reference only. Not to be considered investment advice. Take responsibility for all your decisions.
